| OBJECTIVE1 To analyze distributions, outbreak, diagnosis and current prevalence of Brucellosis in Binzhou City, as well as to provide theory evidences for measure making and works of Brucellosis prevention and control.2 To research disease factors through a 1:2 case-control study, and to provide theory evidences for making measure to prevent and control Brucellosis in Binzhou City.3 To forcast incidence of Brucellosis in the coming 10 years by using gray GM (1,1) model, as well as to provide theory evidences for related organs to prevent and control Brucellosis.MATERIALS and METHODS1 Materials1.1 Analysis on epidemic features Data come from total cases of Brucellosis, which were counted according to home addresses, in the China Diseases Reporting Information System from 2005 to 2015. The sources of Binzhou's populations over the years and the profiles of Binzhou's social and economic development are the Yearbooks of Binzhou City and the Statistical Communique of Binzhou city on the 2015 Economic and Social Development.1.2 Case-control study on relative risk factors A 1:2 case-control study in Binzhou,human brucellosis cases from 2014 to 2015 were which from provided China Diseases Reporting Information System.1.3 Prediction of Brucellosis incidence Data come from the cases of Brucellosis in Binzhou City from 2011 to 2015, reported in the China Diseases Reporting Information System). The source of the populations is 2011-2015 Statisticial Yearbook of Binzhou City.2 Methods2.1 Analysis on epidemic features Using the software of SPSS17.0 describes and anlyzes distributions, outbreak and diagnosis of Brucellosis. Using applied statistics including chi-square criterion, linear trend test, with significance level of 0.05.2.2 Case-control study on relative risk factors After the factors for preliminary study from the epidemiological survey had been quantized, a data base was constructed by Miscrosoft Excel. The data were recorded and analized by SPSS 17.0 after being encoded unformly. We analyzed the data using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models to examine their associations between influencing factors and brucellosis. The effects was evaluated by odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals,with significance level of 0.05.2.3 Prediction of Brucellosis incidence GM (1:1) model is constructed according to the Brucellosis incidence in Binzhou City from 2011 to 2015. Microsoft Excel File is used to process and anlyze data.RESULTS1 Analysis on epidemic features With an average annual incidence rate of 2.40/100000, the cases of human Brucellosis totaled 989 in Binzhou City from 2005 to 2015, an annual increase of 53.50%. The cases of human Brucellosis, which appeared in every month, centered from April to July and accounted for 44.89% of the whole cases. The cases of human Brucellosis reached a peak in May, accounting for 14.46%(143/989). However, the cases of human Brucellosis that reached the peak accounted for different rate among the whole cases in every year and had statistical differences (x2=19.90, P< 0.05). Covering 575 villages of 87 townships and subdistricts, the cases of human Brucellosis appeared in every countis and districts in Binzhou City, among which Wudi County, Huimin County, Zhanhua County, Yangxin County and Zouping County ranked the top 5 counties. Among the cases of Brucellosis, the most are male, and the sex distribution has statistically significant (x2=139.89, P< 0.001). The age of onset ranges from 4-month old to 89-year old. The ages ranging from 31-year to 70-year old reach the peak, accounting for 84.33% (834/989). Since the year 2010, the ages over 60-year old have been annually increasing (being linear trendx2=17.71, P< 0.001). The most are farmers, accounting for 90.80%(898/989).7 plagues of Brucellosis happened, which centered in and after the year 2010.63.50%(628/989) cases have been reported by local medical institutions and 62.18%(615/989) have been reported by comprehensive hospitals. 89.59%(886/989) cases have been diagnosed by labs.2 Case-control study on relative risk factors The results showed that animal-related vocation (OR=15.264,95% CI=11.523-20.219), contacting animals (OR=5.898,95% CI=4.634-7.507), slaughtering infected livestock or processing infected offal (OR=8.691,95% CI=4.973-15.187), delivering inflected animials or disposing apoblema (OR=6.047,95% CI=4.605-7.941), having wounds when contacting infected animals (OR=3.061,95% CI=2.278-4.113), and contacting patients of Brucellosis (OR=4.194,95% CI=2.686-6.547), which have statistical significencs (P?0.05) for local Brucellosis. The protective factors are wearing protective clothing and washing clothing when and after contacting animals.3 Prediction of Brucellosis incidence Using GM model, which has qualified precision, has predicted that Binzhou's incidence of Brucellosis from 2016 to 2025 will be the following of 10.83/100000,14.16/100000,18.53/100000,24.24/100000, 31.73/100000,41.50/100000,54.30/100000,71.05/100000,92.97/100000, 121.63/100000, respectively.CONCLUSIONSIncidence of Brucellosis in Binzhou City has been increasing and its coverage has been expanding annually. The disease centering from Agust to July shows it has seasonality. Patients centered male and farmers. The age of onset ranges from 31-year old to 70-year old. Numbers of patients over 60-year old have increased in recent years. So those who have the above features are focused on being supervised and checked actively in Binzhou City. The number and the plague of Brucellosis have increased significantly since the year 2010. So on the basis of preventing and controling Brucellosis, its propagation and plague should be prevented and control as well.Animal-related vocation, contacting animal, slaughtering infected livestock or processing infected offal and delivering infected animials or disposing apoblema, as well as having wounds when contacting infected animals and contacting patients of Brucellosis are the hazards of Brucellosis. Wearing protective clothing and washing clothing when and after contacting animals are the protective factors. Evidences have been supplied for protection and control of Brucellosis in Binzhou City.If there is not foreign element, the epidemic of brucellosis in Binzhou City is forcasted to increase in the coming period. |
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