Study On Heuristic Strategy In Foreign Exchange Derivative Transactions

With the wave of China's financial market reform,banks promote many kinds of foreign exchange derivatives persistently.However,the research of how to design the promotional material of foreign exchange derivatives to guide customers to participate the transaction is still in its infancy in domestic.So,this paper intends to analyze the decision-making strategies when individuals facing foreign exchange derivatives decision-making tasks,so as to provide references for banks to design foreign exchange derivatives promotional materials.Based on the view of complexity science,the foreign exchange trend is regarded as an indicator of non-effective forecasting.Thus,individuals are in a highly uncertain environment when judging exchange rate movements and analyzing product gains and losses.In this environment,the individual's decision-making process can't be described with the rational model.Based on the perspective of evolutionary psychology,I believe that individuals will use heuurstic decision-making methods to solve problems,in order to obtain the dominant position in the group competition.In order to ascertain the decision-making strategy when individual facing foreign exchange derivative decision-making tasks,this paper designs three parts of study:In the first part,the main work is to acquaint the decision-making process when individuals reading material of foreign exchange derivatives through interviews and screen out the heuristic decision-making methods that individuals use.In the second part,based on the heuristic decision-making strategies that are screened out on the first part of the study,combined with other psychological theories and financial engineering analysis method to design the textual materials,and then,verify the validity of theoretical assumptions through questionnaires.In the third part,in order to clear the question that the interaction of fundamental analysis and technical analysis which is not confirmed in second part,? continue to design text material,and verify the conjecture by analyzing the questionnaire data.In the data analysis process of second and third part,because the data distribution does not meet the demand of normal distribution,and the specificity of fluctuation in foreign exchange rate market,I mainly use non-parametric test for the data statistical analysis.Through the study of decision-making strategies when individuals facing the foreign exchange derivatives decision-making task,this paper presents six principles for the design of foreign exchange derivatives promotional material as follows:First,enlarging the exchange rate exposure;Second,providing other individual transaction information;Third,in the fundamental analysis,keep the information consistent;Fourth,selecting exchange rate chart whose time span is different according to the characteristics of the product;Fifth,describing the future trend of the currency in ascending framework;Sixth,technical analysis method and fundamental analysis method can focus on different products.In the future research,we can extend the research object to the complex foreign exchange derivative products,or examine the interactive decision-making process in the organizational decision-making environment,and examine the similarities and differences between individuals from different cultural traditions based on the perspective of cross-cultural research.We believe that with the deepening of the study of psychological theory and the continuous innovation of domestic financial products,designing foreign exchange derivatives' promotional material will become a promising research topic.It is hoped that the research of this paper can provide theoretical inspiration and practical reference.