| Statistics on the crime of trafficking in children in recent years, showing that the number of trafficked children is amazing, its impact is extremely bad, not only caused great harm to his family, and the child's body and the soul can not heal the wound, even threaten the lives of children.The study of the temporal and spatial distribution of child trafficking and the analysis of influencing factors can provide reference for the prevention of child trafficking and the control of police officers.Therefore, based on the data of children trafficked in the provinces from 1970 to 2015,Spatial statistical methods of spatial autocorrelation are used to study the space-time hotspots and their clustering of child trafficking crime ;The use of Markov matrix analysis was used to study the crime of trafficking in children ;Using geographically weighted regression model study of the influence factors of crime of trafficking in children, found that various social factors on the impact of child trafficking crime.The main contents and research results include the following aspects:(1)Between 1970 and 2015, the number of trafficked children was 44372, and most of the trafficked children were infants and young children. 83% of trafficked children under the age of six and the number of boys who were trafficked far more than the number of trafficked girls, is increasing as the age increases.But as the age grows, the number of trafficked girls is increasing.From the time distribution can be seen from 1970 to 2007, the number of children's trafficking showed a gradual increase in the trend after the decline in 1990 reached the highest value.However, since 2007, due to economic and other factors, the number of children trafficking has a slow upward trend; according to the spatial distribution of the situation, the child trafficking crime high incidence area from the southeast coastal areas to the southwest region, and in the southwest region, The child trafficking high incidence area;(2) The degree of influence of neighborhood on the crime of trafficking in children was examined by means of total polygeneration and local spatial autocorrelation analysis, and its spatial clustering was found. The results show that except 2011 Moran's I index is 0.0115-0.3432 in the study year and showed a positive correlation,Indicating that there is a certain degree of clustering of children trafficking in space, through the G statistical test,proved at 99% confidence, child trafficking is high - high aggregation characteristics;(3)The distribution and variation characteristics of child trafficking in space grades from 1970 to 2014 were analyzed by using Markov transfer matrix and spatial Markov matrix. It was found that the spatial agglomeration of children trafficking was characterized by"regional convergence".Its regional convergence performance is:?The probability of diversion of child trafficking in the middle and low incidence areas and the middle and high incidence areas is high, and there is regional convergence in high and low incidence(4)areas.spatial background on the trafficking of children have a certain impact, if the low-zone for the neighborhood, will reduce the probability of its upward transfer, and high-zone for the neighborhood,it will reduce the probability of downward transfer.(5)Geographic weighted regression model was used to explain the impact of urban and rural income disparity, floating population and educational level on the spatial distribution of trafficking in children,The results show that:Floating population, urban and rural income gap and education level can explain the changes of children's trafficking space, the increase of floating population and urban-rural income gap, will lead to the increase of child trafficking crime, and the improvement of education level can inhibit the occurrence of child trafficking crime. |
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