Research On The Evolution Characteristics And Impact Factors Of Household Dynamics Between Urban And Rural In Hebei Province From 1982 To 2015

Since the 1980 s,China has been promoting the market economy reform.The macro policies,including those of the Family Planning,land control,economic transformation,and wealth distribution and so on,have been continually adjusted.In China,the level of information,industrialization and urbanization has been continually improved,the efficiency of social production has been continuously advanced,and the pace of people's life has been speeded up.Households consistently feel pressures from the market in the aspects of school enrollment,employment,supporting the aged and medical treatment.Consequently,households have to make positive adaptive adjustments in terms of size,model and generational composition.Based on the data of four censuses from 1982 to 2010 and the 1% population sampling data in 2015 in Hebei Province,there is the research in this thesis on the evolution characteristics of household dynamics in Hebei province in the past 33 years from the aspects of household size,household model and household generational composition.With the Local Moran's Index,the spatial agglomeration characteristics of Hebei household dynamics was analyzed at the county level.Using the full population database to identify the family types of households with vulnerable population in urban,town and village areas of Hebei Province,and to count the number of the households with vulnerable population,so as to explore the distribution difference between urban and rural households of vulnerable population in Hebei province.Based on the Geographically weighted regression model,the impacts of the following 7 factors on household dynamics are discussed at the county level: the general fertility rate,the population inflow rate,the divorce rate,the farmers' per-capita net income,the hospital beds per thousand people,the self-sufficiency rate for elderly over 65 years old,and the ratio of undergraduate and above.And it has been found out that:(1)The trend of household dynamics is still developing in Hebei province.And the reduction of households size shows the characteristics of regional agglomeration.On provincial scale,the size of the family households has been reduced from 4.29 people per household in 1982 to 3.24 persons per household in 2015.The household pattern is changed from three-person household in 2000 to two-person household in 2015;Compared with 2000,the proportion of one-generation households increased by 71% in 2015.And the household generational relations are increasingly becoming simplified.On municipal scale,from 1982 to 2015,the household size of Hebei generally diminished in urban,township and rural area.From 2010 to 2015,the size of households in Tangshan remained stable,and the size of households in Hengshui urban area and Chengde township increased instead of fall off;In the period of 2000 to 2015,the household model of urban,township and rural areas in northern Hebei province showed the single-peak of three-person households,while that in Handan,Shijiazhuang,Xingtai township and in the Midwest rural area evolved into the dual-peak of two-person households and the four-person households.In 2015,the proportion of one-generation households was more than that of two-generation households in rural area of Zhangjiakou,and urban area of Zhangjiakou,Chengde and Qinhuangdao;The size of households tends to be stable,and the proportion of six households and three generation of households increased significantly in town of Hebei province.This shows that families undertook more home-based tasks.At the county level,the reduction intensity of households size in Hebei Province mainly presents two types of agglomeration: HH-type and LL-type.The reduction intensity of household size showed HH-type agglomeration in underdeveloped regions and LL-type agglomeration in developed regions.The HL-type agglomeration and the LH-type agglomeration are related to folk culture and industrial structure.(2)Disadvantaged households have significant differences between urban and rural areasThe number of the households with widowers,widows,orphans and childless in Hebei province accounted for 15.99%,with the largest number of childless households and the smallest number of orphans households.The number of the households of those who have no kith and kin and cannot support themselves in established towns is small,but the relative proportion is the highest(21.16%).The proportion of orphans households in Zhangjiakou is higher than that in other areas.Empty nest families in Hebei province account for 15.40%,with the majority of empty nest families in rural areas and the lowest number of empty nest families in established towns.The proportion of empty nest families in Qinhuangdao is higher than that of other regions.Among the urban-rural empty-nest families,the 60-year-old and the 51-year-old have the highest proportion of population,which is the two peaks of the age distribution of the empty-nest families.The 55 and 70 years old are the two critical values of the age distribution of the empty nest families in Hebei.The elderly above 65 mainly live in nuclear families,single families and immediate families.The proportion of the elderly living in downtown alone is higher than that in urban and rural.It's the most obvious in Xingtai,Handan,Zhangjiakou and Langfang(over 40%).Minors under the age of 18 live mainly in nuclear families and immediate families,partly in compound families and single families,and those who live in brothers and sisters families.The proportion of urban minors living alone is the highest,with Zhangjiakou downtown being the most significant,accounting for nearly 10%.Although the trend of family support for the elderly has been enhanced in town of Hebei,the proportion of elderly living in downtown is still relatively high,and the pressure on social retirees is still large.(3)The change of influence intensity and spatial influence of household size is significantFrom 2000 to 2015,the self-sufficiency rate for the elderly over 65 years old,the divorce rate and the farmers' per-capita net income were the main factors that led to the household dynamics in Hebei rural area.The effect of the self-sufficiency rate for the elderly over 65 years old,the divorce rate and the ratio of undergraduate and above on household size is increasing.The influence of farmers' per capita net income on household size is weakened in northwestern Hebei,and is slightly strengthened in the east and north of Heibei.The impact of the general fertility rate and the population inflow rate on household size has been weakened.In 2000,the household size in south of Hebei was more affected than that in north of Hebei by the self-sufficiency rate for the elderly over 65 years old,the divorce rate,the ratio of undergraduate and above,the general fertility rate and medical service facilities.In 2015,the household size in the Midwest of Hebei was more affected by the self-sufficiency rate for the elderly over 65 years old and the divorce rate.The size of households in north of Hebei was more affected by the farmers' per-capita net income and medical service facilities.