The Tide Of Population Migration In The Urban And Rural Areas Of Shanghai Population And Employment: Status And Future Prediction - Reflection Based On The Population Of The Urban And Rural Development

As known to all, to truly realize the economic and social development of urban areas and rural areas as a whole in our country, it is inevitable to face the problems of "agriculture, villages and peasants"(which is called "Sannong Wenti" in Chinese.) The core of that problem is the peasant problem, which is commonly recognized by both the government and the academic circles. The development experience of countries over the world show us that, the ultimate method of solving the problem of "agriculture, villages and peasants" lies on promoting the strategic transfer of agriculture population to town and non-agriculture industries through developing non-agriculture industries, thus to realize the industrialization in economic structure, non-agriculture in employment structure and urbanization in population distribution. However, in a big country with huge population like ours, non-agriculture industries can't be developed at the cost of impairing or sacrificing the development of agriculture, since China can't rely on others to raise the large population which amounts to over one thousand million. That means, if we want to beautifully solve the problem of "Sannong Wenti", we can't cast aside healthy development of agriculture itself. Therefore, whether agriculture will be well developed, and whether its status as a basis is solid is the key point to successfully solve the problem of "agriculture, villages and peasants" and realize economic and social development of urban areas and rural areas as a whole.This article has discussed the outlet of agriculture and peasants in our country under the circumstances of the government's actively promoting the development of urban and rural areas as a whole. Since agriculture and its basic status in the national economy shouldn't be weakened, it seems very important to know how to strengthen the production efficiency and the competition power of agriculture itself. Though investigating domestic and foreign modernization experiences of agriculture and the requirement of leaving agriculture to market forces, the article proposes to select an appropriate organization manner to propel the operation of agriculture-industrialization. That can not only improve agriculture's production efficiency, but also exploit new employment field by integrative operation. And the important is it can propel the extra labors in agriculture to leave agriculture and villages without hesitation to look for new jobs in urban areas and non-agriculture, thus improving income and changing life style. In this sense, the migration of rural population to urban areas on the basis of agriculture- industrialization should be the outlet of solving the problem of "Sannong Wenti" in our country.In the following, the article introduces classical theories of migration between rural and urban areas, and simply discusses the adaptability of Harris-Todaro Model in China. Then the article focuses on Shanghai, which is a main destination of migration between rural and urban areas, analyzing the profound changes and its causes in employment of the permanent population and immigrants in Shanghai in recent years under the background of our country's industrialization, non-agriculture and urbanization. According to the general requirement of building Shanghai into a city of"one leader and four centers" at home and an international metropolis, referring to the forecast of Shanghai's future population and its labor force development, the paper furthermore reveals the development trend of Shanghai's future population, especially its labor force and problems which we will probably encounter. The article takes the view that the enlargement of the immigrants scale is an inevitable trend, and migration can be an important way to make up for the shortage of labor force and alleviate the increasingly rigorous "less child and aging" problem in Shanghai.The last part of the article puts forward some elementary measures to promote the population development in Shanghai, and mainly discusses those measures for promoting population...