Analysis On Changing Trends Of Provincial Aging Population

China entered the aging society in 2000, along with the degree of population aging continues to deepen, the aging of the population began to show the characteristics of the unbalanced distribution of domain. At present, China's aging population is mostly concentrated in the study of the consequences of an ageing population, influence factors, forecast and so on. Study on the provincial population aging trend further. Study on the development trend of the provincial population aging and provide reference data for policy formulation and implementation of the aging population.This paper selects the aging population and the aging rate of two indicators, analysis of the characteristics of the aging population of provinces in China from two aspects. Data analysis showed that the accumulation of provincial space, China's aging population scale, there is spatial correlation. Therefore, in this paper, using spatial econometric model, the 2002 provincial aging population scale as explanatory variables,2012 provincial aging population size as explained variable, the establishment of the logarithmic model to describe the relations in 2002 and 2012 provincial aging population scale, the variation trend of the provincial population scale. The empirical analysis shows that China's provincial population aging differences, differences in the period from 2002 to 2012, gradually expanding. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other places the aging degree of eastern region is relatively serious, Tibet, Xinjiang and other places the aging degree of the western region is relatively small, some provinces have not yet entered the aging society.A spatial econometric model based on Provincial aging population, by 2012 the provincial population data, carries on the forecast to our country in 2022 the provincial population aging. China has implemented two separate child policy since 2014. Taking this into consideration, this paper forecasts the provincial population aging in three cases. The first case for all families choose not to have a second child, "a child", the aging rate is relatively high; second cases for some families choose to have a second child, the aging rate is relatively low; third cases for all the family to choose a second child, "a family of two children ", aging rate is the lowest. In the three case, the provincial aging population size will be gradually expanded, but also improve the rate of aging in the short term.