Research On Population Development Of Global Pattern And Its Effect On Economic Growth

Population development contains the improvement of population's quantity, quality, structure and distribution. It is the most active as well as dynamic element which has significant effects on both regional economic growth and distribution of resources. Since 1980 s, world's population development has experienced greattransmutation, which refers to that total fertility rate has been gradually descended, population quality has been steadily improved, the aged population proportion has been obviously increased and urbanization rate has been rapidly raised. World'saggravation of aging of population and reduced fertility rate has more important influence on global economic growth. China is now at the final phase of “population bonus” and period of strategic transformation of economic development. Problems are highlighted such as sharpdecline of labor resources and deepened trend of population aging.Much attention has been paid to the problem of the relationship between the population and economic development.From global scale, how will each elementof population development influence regional economic growth? What is the difference of the influence between developed countries, emerging economies and developing countries?Based on international experience, how will demographic factors affect China's future economic sustainable growth?What kind of impact will shortage of labor resources and population ageing generateto strategic transformation of economic growth?These problems viewed from global scalehave drawn more attention of the scholars.Thispaper will focus on the pattern of world's population developmentand its impact on regional economic growth.It has theoretical and practical guidence for new population policies and coordination of population and economic developmentfrom the regional difference and international comparison.The paper is mainly divided into five parts:The first part is the introduction. This part summarizes background of the subject, the theoretical and practical significance, relevant studies both at home and abroad, research contents, the basic ideas, researchmethodsand the technical route.The second part is the summary of relevant theory. It contains analysis of connotation of the population development and the relevant theoretical basis of economic effects of population's quantity, quality, structure and distribution.The third part describes the change trend, main reason and growing tendency of world's population and its growth pattern, human capital pattern, population structure pattern and urbanization pattern since the year of 1980, which is on the basis of the division into five camps and related data of representative indicators which present population development of every country.The main conclusionsare as follows:(1)Quantity and growth pattern of population: proportion of China and OECD countries(United States included)declined gradually, BRISE conuntries began declining from 2004, and ROW Region increased steadily.(2)Evolution of human capital pattern: Life expectancy?mean years ofschooling?Human Development Indexexperienced varying degrees of improvement in every region.Theaverage speed of China?BRISE and ROW regions is greater than OECD countries(United States included).(3)Evolution of population age structure patter: The proportion of the aging population of China?BRISE and ROW regions appear upward trend, The proportion of labor force of BRISE and ROW regionsrised slowly.From dependency ratio, The total population dependency ratio of China?BRISE and ROW regions was declining., and OECDcountries(United States included) rised in fluctuation.(4)Evolution of distribution pattern of urban population: Urbanization of every region showed a steady upward trend. The proportion of OECDcountries(United States included) showed a declining trend, while other developing countries rised in fluctuation.The fourth part firstly analyzes world economic pattern changes and evolution trend according to the regional economyaggregate, economic growth, industrial structure, import and export trade and so on. On this basis, this paper then proceedsthe basic analysis between population development and regional economic growth. This part uses the total fertility, mean years of schooling, proportion of 15-64 years oldpopulation, urbanization rate as explaining variables. It then establishes econometric model on the basis of panel data of 88 countries during the period of 1990-2013. The paper also simulates the effect of population development on economic growth of China by computing the contribution.The conclusions are as follows: The affectof labor force on the economic growthwas not significant in model 2, and the simulation results of urbanization ratewere not significant in model 1 and model 2. Except for these, the results show that the lower the total fertility rateis,the higher growth rate of economy. The mean years of schooling, proportion of 15-64 years old population, urbanization rate have a positive effecton regional economic growth.The element which has the greatest degree of influence on regional economic growth is the proportion of 15-64 year-old population and mean years of schooling.The estimates of economic effects of population development in China show that: Enhancementof the populationquality and urbanization have the greater contribution level for China's economic growth, while changes in population structure has the lowercontribution level. The gross value of each element ofpopulation development's contribution on growth rate of GDPshows a trend of increasing firstly and then decreasing.The last part is summary of the main conclusion and the enlightenment to China. The enlightenments aresuch as adjustmentingfertility policy,Focus on investment into human capital, increasing the employment rate,developing aging industryand perfecting social security system, guiding the healthy development of urbanization.