Research On The Effect Of School-aged Population Changes On Distribution Of Education Resources In Tianjin

Being a port city in northern China, Tianjin will become the economic center of northern China that is prosperous in economy, advanced in science and education, and beautiful in environment, in the year of 2020. China(Tianjin) Pilot Free Trade Zone inaugurated in April, 2015, marking a new opportunity for a high-speed economy development of Tianjin. Meanwhile, Tianjin is facing with severe public resources shortage resulting from the inflow of numerous financial talents and large labor population, in which education resources is the highlight. Education, as an integral part of public service, shall offer general public with resources th at is fair and superior. Under the double pressure of baby boom and continuous increase of immigrant population, a scientific school-aged population prediction is of vital importance for the prevention of resources distribution risks, which is the focus of this thesis.Through a research on the population development track in Tianjin, the thesis provides a five-year population prediction, aiming at identifying the trend of school-aged population changes, and presenting reliable evidence for a reasonable and effective education resources distribution. Firstly, the permanent resident population and household registered population from the year of 2014 to 2020 are predicted based on the 2004-2013 population data of Tianjin. Secondly, the annual average newly-born population is figured out by combing the predicted data and the fertility rate. Thirdly, the 2014-2020 school-aged population development condition is projected by using age-based calculation and school enrollments of different ages. The following result is discovered: The number of kindergarten students will continue to increase. Likewise, the number of primary school students will keep its increase trend at a relatively fast speed. The number of middle school students will decrease first, then increase. The number of high school and secondary vocational school students will witness slowly decrease. Fourthly, the education resources demand is forecasted with the help of anticipated students numbers and current education resources. Consequently, a detailed prediction on the demand of school buildings, teachers, and education expenditure is offered as follows: the pre-school education will see fairly large resources shortage. The primary school education resources can satisfy the current need, but will not meet the development requirement in the near future. The resources of middle school, high school and secondary vocational school are relatively sufficient, but unevenly distributed.Finally, based on the principle of enhancing leading, overall planning, revitalizing resources, and balancing development, the ideas and suggestions of education resources allocation and educational equalization are proposed by the thesis.