The Study Of Threshold Effect On The Aging Of Population And The Optimization Of Industrial Structure

Rural residents The Aging Population has become China's one of the most important topics nowadays. Postponed retirement, Two-child policy and the Reform of Social Security System all reflect this topic. After the Chinese economy going into the new normal, the readjustment of industrial structure becomes an essential part of “Adjusting structure”, and the disappearance of ”demographic bonus” will have a great impact on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Therefore, analyzing the impact of Aging Population from the views of supply, demand and investment will help us learn about the phenomena of the aging better, thus giving us a vital foundation of putting forward some policies on the optimization of industrial structure.This paper is based on the analysis of the current aging population and optimization of industrial structure. By combining the existing literatures with theoretical knowledge of demography and industrial economic, this research takes advantage of Hansen's(1998) Threshold Method to build the panel threshold model, where we using the data of China's 29 provinces(from 1998 to 2012) to make out the threshold effect of aging population to the optimization of industrial structure. At last, this research finds that:(1)The Aging Population has a prominent threshold effect on the optimization of industrial structure. Taking “per capita disposable income” as threshold variable, Aging Population has remarkable effects both on the rationalization and the upgrading of the industrial structure. That means, in the different ranges of per capita disposable income, the former has different impacts on those two, which changes the existing rough conclusion of either positive or negative effects.(2)The Aging Population has a positive and enhanced effect on the optimization of industrial structure. When the per capita disposable income is over 20649 RMB, the effect of aging population on the optimization of industrial structure changes from the negative to the positive. When the per capita disposable income is over 30886 RMB, the positive effect will be strengthen. Therefore, enhancing the current per capita disposable income is an essential measure to response to the aging trend.(3)The Aging Population has a greater effect on the upgrading industrial structure than the rationalization of industrial structure. Thus, as two dimensions of the optimization of industrial structure, the government should pay more attention to promoting the development of upgrading of industrial structure.