Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On The Industrial Structure Upgrading

Since the reform and opening up,the Chinese economy has achieved remarkable achievements in the past forty years,creating a miracle in the history of world economic growth,and China's contribution to world economic growth is increasing.However,as China entered the aging society in the early 21st century,the negative impact of population aging on economic growth has gradually become prominent.The report of the 19^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage,it is in the process of transforming the development mode,optimizing the economic structure,and transforming the growth momentum,building a modern economic system is an urgent requirement to cross the border and the strategic goals of China's development.Under the dual background of the population aging and the economic transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development in China,in-depth study of the impact of population aging on China's industrial structure upgrading will not only help us better understand the relationship between population aging and industrial structure upgrading,but also can provide decision-making basis for the relevant government departments to formulate economic development plans and industrial development policies,which has important theoretical and practical significance.The impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading is complex,the population aging will not only affect the upgrading of industrial structure through supply,but also affect the upgrading of industrial structure through demand.However,systematic research of the population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure is still rare in China.Based on demographic theory and economic theory,this paper firstly analyzes the relationship between population aging and industrial structure upgrading,and then selects the inter-provincial panel data at the macro level empirically studies the impact of population aging on the upgrading of China's industrial structure.In the empirical analysis,this paper not only constructs the industrial structure advanced coefficient and the industrial structure rationalized coefficient to measure the overall upgrading of the three industries'structure,but also based on the sub-industry data structure of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry constructs the manufacturing structure upgrading coefficient and the service industry structure upgrading coefficient which used to measure the internal upgrading of the industrial structure.This paper studies the impact of population aging on the industrial structure upgrading from various angles.The main conclusions are as follows:?1?Seen from the results of the mediation effect,on the whole,population aging will significantly promote the advanced of industrial structure,the rationalized of industrial structure and the upgrading of manufacturing structure,but it will significantly hinder the upgrading of the service industry structure.Specifically,the population aging will have a positive impact on the advanced of industrial structure through the labor productivity effect and technological innovation effect,promote the rationalized of the industrial structure through the labor productivity effect,promote the upgrading of the manufacturing structure through the human capital accumulation effect,and through the consumption expenditure effect to hinder the upgrading of the service industry structure.?2?Seen from the research results of the threshold effect,there are two thresholds for the impact of population aging on the advanced of industrial structure,when the per capita GDP is lower than the first threshold,the positive impact of population aging on the advanced of industrial structure is greatest;with the increase of per capita GDP,the positive impact of population aging on the advanced of industrial structure is gradually decreasing.There is a threshold for the impact of population aging on the upgrading of service industry structure,when the per capita GDP is at a low level,the negative impact of population aging on the upgrading of service industry structure is relatively bigger;with the increase of per capita GDP,the negative impact of population aging on the upgrading of the industry structure gradually decrease.However,the threshold effect of population aging on the rationalized of industrial structure and the upgrading of manufacturing structure are not significant.?3?Seen from the research results of the spatial spillover effect,the population aging will not only affect the upgrading of the local industrial structure,but also have a significant spatial spillover effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure in the adjacent area.Specifically,the spatial spillover effect of population aging on the advanced of industrial structure is not significant,and the spatial spillover effect of population aging on the rationalized of industrial structure and manufacturing structure upgrading are significantly positive,but the spatial spillover effect of population aging on the upgrading the service industry structure is significantly negative.?4?The impact of population aging on the industrial structure upgrading has significant regional heterogeneity.Whether it is the mediating effect,the threshold effect or the spatial spillover effect,all of the results show that the impact of population aging on the industrial structure upgrading in eastern China,central regions,and western regions are quite different.Overall,the impact of population aging on the industrial structure upgrading in the central and western regions is more significant than that in the eastern region,the threshold effect of population aging on the central and western regions is also significantly stronger than that in the eastern region,but the spatial spillover effect in the eastern and central regions is significantly stronger than that in the western region.The main innovations of this paper are:Firstly,construct the upgrade coefficient between the three industrial structures and the upgrade coefficient within the industrial structure at the same time,further expand the research of this field.Secondly,taking full account of the regional differences in the degree of population aging and the degree of industrial structure upgrading in various regions of China,studied the regional heterogeneity of the impact of population aging on the industrial structure upgrading.Thirdly,the impact of population aging on the industrial structure upgrading were studied from the perspectives of mediating effect,threshold effect and spatial spillover effect,researched the problem systematically.However,there are still some shortcomings in this paper that need to be improved.For example,the continuous panel data of the prefecture-level city level cannot be found for more in-depth analysis,only the structure upgrading coefficient of the manufacturing and service industries are constructed,and the agricultural structure upgrading coefficient is not constructed,the research on the internal upgrading of industrial structure is still not complete.