An Analysis Of The Intermediary Effect Of Population Aging On The Upgrading Of Industrial Structure

At present,China is facing challenges such as population aging,industrial structure upgrading and economic transformation.In-depth study of the relationship between population aging and industrial structure upgrading will help China to formulate relevant policies,not only to ensure the smooth transformation and upgrading of China’s economy,resolve backward production capacity,but also to provide more welfare for the elderly population.Firstly,this paper introduces the related theories of population aging and industrial structure evolution and upgrading,and makes a qualitative analysis on the transmission mechanism of population aging affecting industrial structure upgrading.This paper holds that the aging of population can influence the upgrading of industrial structure through five ways:influencing consumption demand,human capital,labor endowment,labor productivity and aging burden.Then,on the basis of investigating the current situation of population aging and the development level of industrial structure in China,this paper constructs a benchmark regression model of the impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure,and uses the provincial panel data of 1995-2017 for empirical research,The results show that the aging population can promote the upgrading of industrial structure.In order to further verify the five mediating effects mechanism proposed above,this paper introduces Hayes method to test the five mediating effects,The results show that the aging population will play a positive role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure by increasing the consumption demand of the elderly,stimulating the substitution of human capital for material capital,and increasing the level of labor wage;Through the reduction of labor productivity,it has a negative effect on the upgrading of industrial structure;The aging population will not affect the upgrading of industrial structure by squeezing the education expenditure of national finance.Generally speaking,China’s aging population has a positive net effect on the upgrading of industrial structure.Finally,based on the results of the above empirical analysis,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions on how to deal with the aging of population and promote the upgrading of industrial structure as an opportunity.