Treatment Effect Of China's Population Policy

The impact of China's population policy is currently focused by the whole society, one key factor is to predict the natural growth path of population. By comparing the natural path and actual path, we can not only evaluate the treatment effect of population policy, but also know the progress direction of population in the future.In order to measure the dynamic effect of it, we introduced individual factors to the model proposed by Hsiao et al.(2012), which is based on panel data to solve the treatment effect. By the simulation experiments, we prove that new model has stronger applicability. In our empirical study, ten countries or regions are selected as reference in order to find the natural path since the implementation of “one-child policy”.Our research shows that the gap between actual and potential path increased up to 340 million people in 2012. At the same time, aging population occurred previously by at least 12 years due to “one-child policy”. We also find that population increased by arithmetic other than geometric progression in the potential path, the proportion of underage population declined endogenously with the development of economy, therefor, further reform will not lead to a population boom. At the end of this paper, we use “chain ladder method” to predict the aging people, and analyze the challenge will be confronted by China, considering the unbalanced population structure of China, we believe further release of population policy is a better choice.