An Essay On Population Structure Analysis And Policy Study

In this paper, we analyzed European, Japan, the United States and otherdeveloped countie’s experiences and perspectives for the interpretation of populationissues, studied population growth and limited resources conflicts, dualism, humancapital and other domestic mature theories，based on current situation of Chinesepopulation, we put forward a series of policy to improve China’s population structureand economy growth.China’s implementation of family planning for30years, has made greatachievements, and promoted the sustained and rapid development of China’seconomy to maintain a stable and harmonious situation, but also bringed sex ratioimbalance, aging structure and disappearing population bonus.We combine China’s historical development experience with the internationalexperience of developed countries, sub-regional policies, put forward China’spopulation policy adjusting direction. Proposed gradually region-by-region, radical,conservative and moderate population adjustment policy.Under study on Malthus, Ma Yin-chu, Song Jian, the Club of Rome and othertheoretical studies on population issues, the history and reality of our country, wefocus on the important aspects of population structural problems. And innovativelyintroduced the concept of human capital to fully explain why the sum of the totalfertility rate will continue to decline as the economic developed, even more, weintroduced Japan, South Korea, Singapore and European countries empirical analysis,so that we have established a global population development context and thedevelopment path of China’s population as well as possible future directions.Sex ratio was not a trouble20years before, and rarely become a problem ofcapitalist countries，it had not been an important issue. Human world as the manycreatures in nature, all in accordance with the law of nature for survival anddevelopment, has continued to adapt to proper sex ratio. But as the population explosion, with the population control requirements, China and Chinese neiborhood,South Korea, have been plagued by this problem, this is a conflict between populationcontrol and total fertility. It is not a temporary phenomenon along with economicdevelopment, it was caused by outside influence, if we do not carry out right policies,this kind of structural imbalances should not disappear quickly.Ageing society,”silver hair wave”, has become a serious problem in thedeveloped capitalist countries, many countries have entered into ageing society in thelast century, they has implemented a lot of policy. We first mentioned the ageing inthe1990s, but the problem really came to our eyes on the beginning of this century.Now we still have not policy breakthrough and innovation to solve the problem.Pensions, pharmaceutical, family problems, social issues, health care and others haveto adapt to the ageing society, we are looking forward to make out a sound solution.In the past20years, especially in the recently10years, the status of China inthe world have been greatly improved, not just China’s GDP has jumped to second inthe world, and "Made in China " has become World label, but " Chinese consumer "has become the world’s luxury consumer. Someone say it all came from China’s"demographic dividend "(Population Bonus), it is the political strategy generatedform leaders of the country’s released development capacity properly, also the"demographic dividend" has made tremendous contributions to it.However, we haveto consider the gradually disappearance of the bonus and the "demographicobligations "(Population Onus) is steping closely, we try to formulate a policy toprolong bonus(Bonus Vs Onus), creating our second " demographic dividend."We propose three program plan:"Walk through " Plan——In first five years, permit one-child family with oneonly-child parent to have a second child, five years later, carry out nationwide,10years later, any family can birth two children."Fly over " Plan——In first five years, regionally permit every family havetwo-child then gradually extended to whole country, five years later, abolition of theexisting one-child policy;"Jump over " Plan——In first five years, permit one-child family to have asecond child nationwide, five years later, permit every family have two-child,10years later, any family can birth two children,taking appropriate regional policies topromote rational fertility. By implementing anyone of the above three program plan, we believe canimprove the structure of China’s sex ratio imbalance and ageing problems, but theefforts vary plan by plan. Meanwhile, in order to improve program implementationand the effectiveness of policies, we propose to accelerate regional economicdevelopment research; in addition, we also bring further police and program to easyageing pressures and creat opportunities. We believe that China’s economy willcontinue growing, in the next5or10years, China’s population structure will beimproved, evenmore it will be completely reversed in the next10-20years, to achievea well-off society and realize the " China dream ".