| Different with the past researches which did fail to find the relationship between postponing retirement and fertility,this paper,based on the theoretical analysis and field researches,constructs a path-model that delaying retirement will decrease fertility at present by withdrawing informal care to grandchildren from retiree.The results,having considered exogenous fertility,death and propensity,exhibit that 1)the relationship between retirement age and fertility comes into nonlinear;2)the higher postpone retirement age,the lower of the fertility and 3)the declining quantity of fertility is gradually slowing down and converge finally.The policy aimed at to prolonging work life will possibly aggravate crisis of low-fertility in the absence of child-caring. |
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