Research On The Impact Of Fertility Policy Adjustment And Retirement On Family Debt

Since 2000,China has gradually entered a society with an aging population,and the proportion of the elderly population has increased year by year.The aging of the population makes the "demographic dividend" disappear,and the consumption potential cannot be fully released.In order to cope with the problems caused by the aging of our country’s population,the government has gradually liberalized the two-child policy since 2013.The implementation of the two-child policy has effectively alleviated the problem of population aging,which has caused tremendous changes in Chinese population structure.The changes in the demographic structure will also affect the savings and consumption behavior of households to a certain extent,and in turn affect the debt demand of residents.Excessive household debt will increase the debt repayment pressure of my country’s household sector,and even trigger financial risks.Data show that from 2009 to 2019,the leverage ratio of Chinese household sector has more than doubled,and the leverage ratio in 2019 has exceeded 50%.This article analyzes the changes in the population structure to understand the debt needs of different families,and provides ideas for rational adjustment of debt needs and prevention of financial risks.This article uses the three-phase survey data of the China Family Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2013,2015 and 2017,uses propensity matching and the difference in difference method to analyze the difference in the debt structure of only-child and two-child families.From the perspectives of high,middle and low income,we examine the differences in the impact of different types of two-child families on the family debt structure.Regarding the impact of retirement on the structure of household debt,this paper uses fuzzy breakpoint regression to make a specific analysis.On this basis,from the perspective of family labor income,the reasons for the changes in the family debt structure due to retirement are analyzed.Finally,based on the empirical results,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.The results show that:(1)On the whole,two-child families have a significant influence on the choice of family debt types.Compared with the one-child family,the proportion of housing debt in two-child families has increased,while the proportion of production and operating debt has decreased,and the impact on the proportion of other types of debt is not significant.In terms of different regions,there is no significant difference in debt choices between only-child families and two-child families in the central region.The total debt level of two-child families in the eastern region has increased,and the proportion of housing debt has increased,but the proportion of vehicle debt and production and operation debt has decreased.The proportion of production and operation debts of two-child families in the western region has decreased,while the proportions of other types of debts are not significant.In terms of income levels,there are differences in the debt choices of two-child families at different income levels.For middle-income families,the increase in the number of children in the family has no significant impact on all types of debt.Two-child families with lower incomes accounted for an increase in education debt and a decrease in vehicle debt.The proportion of production and operation liabilities of high-income households has decreased.(2)Retirement has caused a significant change in the proportion of household housing debt and vehicle debt,but it has not had a significant impact on the proportion of other types of debt.The proportion of housing debts of retired families has decreased,and the proportion of vehicle debts has increased.At the same time,because the main income of workers includes wages,bonuses,benefits and so on.This article measures these three types of labor income,and analyzes the mechanism of the impact of retirement on the family’s debt structure from the perspective of individual labor income.It is found that retirement affects the family’s credit choices by reducing family labor income.