Study On The Impact And Policy Implications Of Individual Retirement Reserves On Postpone Retirement

The aggravating trend of aging population brings impact to the pension security system’s sustainable and comprehensive development.How to solve the problem of"being old before getting ready" is a difficult problem facing system reform.In this context,delaying retirement It is believed to boost personal benefits while alleviating the financial pressure on basic pension insurance.In this context,postpone retirement is thought to increase personal benefits while alleviating financial pressure on basic pension insurance.Research on postpone retirement is mainly from the perspective of public pension and labor market,and rarely discussed from the perspective of pension security and pension finance.However,international experience and research have shown that the effective operation of the postpone retirement policy requires a supporting and positive policy environment,especially the institutional environment.The promotion of postpone retirement must be linked with the reform of the pension system.If the pension system lacks an effective incentive mechanism,the postpone retirement reform will have insufficient motivation and hinder implementation.From the individual perspective,residents will consider their individual pension reserves rather than single pension income when making postpone retirement decisions with the continuous improvement of the multi-pillar pension security system,With the gradual diversification of pension security system,comprehensive individual old-age pension reserves are becoming more and more important.Therefore,postpone retirement cannot be carried out with“one size fits all" reforms.At the same time,a reasonable postpone retirement policy can promote the development of the third pillar pension in the opposite direction.Therefore,it is of practical significance to pay attention to the complex impact of individual pension reserves on postpone retirement.This paper discusses from four aspects:literature review,theoretical model,descriptive statistics,and empirical research.First of all,the existing related researchs of individual pension reserve and postpone retirement are sorted out to prepare the literature and theoretical preparation for the research of the thesis.Based on this,a two-period OLG model with heterogeneous income uncertainty was constructed under the life cycle theory to simulate the probability relationship between individual retirement reserves and postpone retirement decisions.It was found that as the individual retirement reserves increase,the postpone retirement probability increases instead.Based on this theoretical derivation,the empirical part uses data from CHARLS in 2015.After measuring and analyzing individual retirement reserves,a Probit model for postpone retirement analysis is established.Stepwise regression was used to verify that there is a positive significant impact of individual retirement reserves on postpone retirement.Individuals with more reserves have a greater probability to choose postpone retirement.Subsequently,two interaction terms of health status and intergenerational care were introduced into the basic regression model to try to further clarify the specific impact mechanism of individual retirement reserve on postpone retirement.The results show that although the state of health does not directly affect the impact,it positively regulates the impact of individual retirement reserves on postpone retirement,that is,good health conditions magnify the positive impact of individual retirement reserves on postpone retirement.In the discussion of gender heterogeneity,the samples are first grouped according to gender differences to examine whether individual retirement reserves of different gender groups have a differential effect on postpone retirement.The empirical results show that there is gender heterogeneity in the impact of individual retirement reserves on postpone retirement.This effect is no longer significant in the female group,but is basically consistent with the basic model in the male group.When all control variables are added,this gender The difference is no longer significant.Based on the above analysis,this paper proposes to change the retirement system from "compulsory" to "flexible";build a diversified retirement protection as soon as possible,promote the implementation of the individual pension system;do a good job of supporting policies for "postpone retirement";as well as constructing differentiated and equalized retirement policies and old-age security policies and other related policy recommendations.