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Demographic Transition And Economic Growth

Posted on:2018-11-16Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y L DuanFull Text:PDF
GTID:2347330515497365Subject:Western economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
There are a lot of literature researches about demographic transition and economic growth,but none of them are from the perspective of middle-income stage.Middle-income countries as a bridge that crosses from the low-income and high-income countries,has its unique characteristics in the demographic transition.Therefore,middle-income stage is a special and critical stage.This paper studies demographic transition and economic growth from the perspective of middle-income stage.Firstly,this paper expounds the demographic transition features in middle-income stage and its relationship with economic growth in perspective of population dividends and unified growth theory.Then the population and economic data of world bank and human capital index of Penn World Tables is used to verify the characteristics of demographic transition in middle-income stage.We also make a comparative analysis of the demographic transition of some typical countries.Furthermore,the survival model is established to analyze the contributions of the demographic transition to economic growth.The empirical analysis shows that the demographic transition of middle-income countries will brought an increase number of labor force thus a higher probability enter into high-income stage.Finally,based on the experimental conclusions Combined with China's own situation,we found that China lost a major driver of economic growth in middle-income stage:an increase number of labor force.Aiming at super-fast demographic transition problem in China,we put forward that family plan must be abandoned in response to demographic transition,aging labor resource must be developed,human resource dividend must represent population dividend.
Keywords/Search Tags:Middle-income Stage, Demographic Transition, Unified Growth Theory, Survival Model
PDF Full Text Request
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