Demographic Dividend Calculated And The Choice Of China’s Child Policy Based On The Lifecycle Consumption-income

Demographic dividend was put forward by Mason in the study of East Asian miracle in 1997, Demographic dividend can be explained by the population age structure to promote the economic effect of economic growth, Conducive to the growth of the population age structure is the basis of Demographic dividend, The population structure need to satisfy the following conditions:smaller children and the elderly population proportion, high proportion of adult labor force and small social population burden, But I don’t mean that population dividend will appear when appear such population age structure. Previous articles are focus on the use of the working age population and the working-age population ratio to measure demographic dividend, it is concluded that China’s demographic dividend has disappeared or will be continue some time later, But these methods neglect that Only by labor population measure of demographic dividend is correct and the demographic dividend, At the same time, most of the paper when discusses the contribution of demographic dividend to economic growth does not take into account the demographic dividend period of beginning and ending, only on the selection based on time series data to analyze demographic change and the contribution rate of birth policy on economic growth, Not from the start-stop of demographic dividend period to analyze the economic growth will have inaccurate conclusions, the economic effect of demographic dividend should be given countries in a comparative study of the demographic dividend equivalent environment. So this article use the United Nations population forecast data and NTA (the National Transfer Accounts) level of consumption and labor income data, Using life cycle consumption-income model of China’s demographic dividend start-stop phase are discussed in precise measurement, provides the time basis for the study of demographic dividend with economic growth, the result shows that the level of consumption of demographic dividend in China began in 1973, and end in 2015 with the real effective labor income level and effective relative to measure. at the same time Articles also used the consumption-income lifecycle model to measure and compare the demographic dividend period of economic growth and the economic growth after demographic dividend dissipate the United States, Japan, South Korea, France, Australia and other representative countries, according to the results, Those who have lost the demographic dividend countries have entered the phase of economic downturn, and some of the countries in the aspect of policy measures are broadly similar, Most of the population policies in these countries is the encourage policy on birth;Now China has lost its demographic dividend economic boost, though in policy fully liberalized to two-child family,but still mainly on the family planning policy to make the corresponding adjustment, it has certain irrationality On the population policy formulation.Despite China’s economic development and policy is different with the United States, Japan, South Korea, France, Australia, the country, but generally is similar to that In the harvesting of demographic dividend has been economic growth, demographic dividend disappears will also face the effective labor population decline, the challenge of an ageing population, economic growth. At that time how to develop the population policy,how to deal with population dividend dissipate after Labour shortages and slowing economic growth and so on, the Chinese government will be facing a series of problems to be solved urgently, especially the child policy. So we need to study international multinational to draw on China’s economic growth, population policy beneficial enlightenment and policy support.In this paper, starting from the economic effects of demographic dividend, there have the two big aspects for research,one is the countries demographic dividend start-stop phase measurement and Another is the study of population structure and fertility policy impact on the economy, first of all, we illustrate the basis of the research background and theory of demographic dividend, demographic dividend to economic growth of the transmission mechanism, then we will summarize domestic and foreign academic circles to the model of calculating the demographic dividend, and The demographic dividend method in this paper will be put forward,secondly introduced the consumption-income and calculated ending period of demographic, Detailed procedure is using the model to examine the effective labor income and effective consumption level of population with China and the United States, South Korea, Japan, France, Australia,then obtained Demographic dividend start-stop phase by data processing, and under the premise of "demographic dividend" period with several developed countries, Using growth regression model to analyze the population structure and fertility policy impact on economic growth, Regression results encouraging birth policy has a positive impact on economic growth, especially in the case of demographic dividend disappear, the conclusion can provide certain theoretical support for the population policy of our country. At the end of the paper, on the basis of measurement data results of the model we will put forward some policy Suggestions to China’s future economic development situation and prospects combined with the development of multinational experience.