| Since reform and opening up,China's economy has achieved rapid growth.With the continuous expansion of the total scale of China's economy,the per capita GDP is also increasing.However,since the international financial crisis in 2008,China's economic growth rate has obviously decreased,and the growth rate of GDP has dropped from 14.2%in 2007 to 6.9%in 2017.At this point,China's economy has changed from the rapid growth stage of the past to the present high-speed growth,and has entered the"new normal economic development".The nineteen major report of the party points out that "development is the foundation and key to solve all problems in our country",and "we must unswervingly take development as the first priority of the party's ruling and rejuvenating the country".Therefore,how to ensure the sustained,healthy and stable growth of China's economy is one of the major and practical problems facing us.China has now entered the third stage of the transformation of the population,namely,"low birth,low death,low growth",and "less" and "aging" have become the new characteristics of the transformation of China's population structure.By 2016,the number of elderly people aged 65 and above rose to 150 million in China,accounting for 10.8%of the total population,and the trend of aging is becoming more and more obvious.Therefore,how to avoid the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the acceleration of the population aging process under the acceleration of economic and social development,avoid the population "population liability",and avoid the"vacuum period" between the "first demographic dividend" and the "second demographic dividend" of two dividends,are the important and realistic questions we are facing.With regard to the relationship between population factors and China's economic growth,the academic circles have made an in-depth exploration.Based on different research methods and perspectives,the contribution of demographic dividend toChina's economic growth is tested from 12%to 30%,which fully affirms the contribution of population factors to the "Chinese economic miracle".Therefore,exploring the impact of population factors on China's economic growth is of great practical significance.In addition,there has been a study on the impact of population factors on China's economic growth,which is mainly based on the influence of the change of the labor age population and the total dependency ratio on the economic growth under the change of the population structure,but neglects the important influence of human capital factors,which are also the carrier of human beings.As a matter of fact,while the population dividend disappears and the population aging process accelerates,the contribution of human capital measured by education and health indicators to China's economic growth is increasing.The high quality human capital plays an increasingly important role in the process of technological progress and industrial upgrading in China.It has become an increasingly important driving force for China's economic growth.Therefore,the expansion and improvement of the scale of human capital under the transformation of the population quality structure in China is not only conducive to offset the negative impact of the aging of the population on China's economic growth,but also is beneficial to China's scientific and technological progress,industrial upgrading,the cultivation of new growth points and the formation of new kinetic energy,which has important strategic significance.Based on the perspective of population quantity and population quality,this paper studies the impact of demographic transition on China's economic growth,focusing on two aspects of theoretical research and empirical test.First,in theoretical research,this paper first clarifies the theoretical basis of the relevant research,defines the connotation and content of the transition of population structure,establishes the influence mechanism and transmission mechanism of the transition of population structure to China's economic growth,and then uses the mathematical model to prove the above theoretical mechanism.Secondly,the current situation of China's economic growth and the transition of population structure is descripted,and based on the provincial panel data to measure empirical tests,four empirical regression methods are used to test the impact of population structure change on China's economic growth,including static and Dynamic Empirical test,spatial econometric empirical test,Threshold Panel empirical test and three regional sub-sample empirical test.On the basis of the above research,the main conclusions are drawn as follows:1.the change of the quantitative demographic dividend,represented by population aging,has a negative impact on China's economic growth;2.the mass dividend of human capital based on human capital is increased to China's economy.The long effect is positive and significant;3.in the process of the transformation of China's population structure,there is a substitution of the mass dividend effect on the dividend effect of the quantitative population;the effect of the change of 4.population structure and the change of population quality structure on China's economic growth has a significant gap between the regions.The innovation of this article is embodied in the following aspects:1.analyzing the impact of demographic transition on China's economic growth from the perspective of population quantity structure and population quality structure.The transformation of population structure reflects the main characteristics and results of the evolution of the population's natural structure,which reflects the population structure of China,represented by the demographic dividend and the aging of the population,while the transformation of the population quality structure reflects the main characteristics and results of the evolution of the population's social structure,and reflects the degree of education and health.The quality of China's population structure represented by the two represents the transformation of population structure in China as a whole.Therefore,in view of the "dichotomy" in the field of demography and the economic circle,this paper combines the dual perspective of "quantity" and"quality",and integrates the "dichotomy" which is embodied in the current academic research.2.From the two perspectives of quantity and quality,we further deepen our understanding of demographic dividend theory.The demography is mainly on the basis of demographic dividend and population aging to discuss the influence of population change on economic growth,focusing on the benefit of the change of population structure on economic growth,which is brought about by the change of population age structure,while ignoring the advantage of quality human capital to economic growth;It is mainly based on the concept of human capital to discuss the advantage of population quality structure transformation to economic growth.In addition,few literature can simultaneously study the dual effects of quantitative demographic dividend and quality demographic dividend on China's economic growth.Therefore,on the basis of the research,this paper further defines the quantitative demographic dividend to represent the benefit of the population structure under the population structure transformation,and defines the quality demographic dividend to represent the benefit of the population structure under the population quality structure to the economic growth,and thus deepens the population red.The understanding of the theory of profit.In addition,the concept of demographic dividend,population aging,human capital dividend and so on is fully incorporated into the theoretical framework of demographic transition,which further enriches the theory of population structure and deepens the understanding of population law.3.Based on the theory of demographic transition and population structure,a theoretical analysis framework for the impact of demographic transition on China's economic growth is established.This paper first defines the meaning and characteristics of the concept of demographic transition,population quantitative structure transformation and population quality structure transformation,and analyzes the influence mechanism and transmission mechanism of population quantitative structure transformation and population quality structure transformation on China's economic growth.Based on the MRW model,it constructs the correlation of demographic transition.The economic growth model of the index is used to examine the influence of the population structure transformation and the change of population quality structure on China's economic growth,and the mathematical model is used to prove the substitution effect of the quality demographic dividend on the quantitative demographic dividend. |
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