The Study Of Demographic Dividend Based On Provincial Panel Data Model

Since the beginning of 1960s,many developing countries have experienced rapid development in the process of economic transition and population structure,which was the most representative in East Asia.So the relationship between the population of working age and the economic growth is gradually becoming the focus of the scholars.Since the new China was founded,Chinese population has experienced a rapid change and the demographic dividend has formed.The analysis of the demographic dividend and the economic growth in China is very important to our further economic development.In this paper,we use the provincial panel data during1990-2015 with fixed effect model analyzing the effect of demographic dividend on economic growth.What's more,this paper also dividend the similar research from the differences of the demographic dividend among different regions and the demographic metric.This paper first describes the background of our demographic dividend.This paper also takes a thorough analysis of the changes in the structure of population and the rapid development of the economic and social situation.After that,this paper introduces the concept and standard of Population dividend.It also explains the characteristics of economic growth mechanism and tries to clarify the full range of demographic dividend.This paper uses the regression model when it analyses the promoting effect of the demographic dividend on the economic growth with the help of the panel data in China.The whole paper is divided into 5 chapters:The first chapter is the introduction part.It mainly introduces the background and significance,the aim and the main contents of this study.What's more,it sorts out the relevant literature and finds the inadequacies of the study.It also introduces the possible innovations and shortcomings of this paper.The second chapter introduces the concept of demographic dividend and some theories about the relationship between population and economic growth,which is the theoretical foundation of the research of this paper,the paper mainly analyzes the effect mechanism of the demographic dividend on the economic growth,and provides the theoretical basis for the empirical analysis..The third chapter mainly introduces the basic situation of the population in our country.It analyzes the changes of the population in every area of our country.It briefly introduces macroeconomic environment of the demographic dividend.Regression analysis was carried out on the theoretical dependency ratio and the actual dependency ratio.The forth chapter is the core part of this paper.It makes an empirical analysis of China's provincial panel data during 1990-2015 by using the fixed effects model.It introduces the specific role of China's demographic dividend on economic growth,and the differences between theoretical demographic dividend and actual demographic dividend.The fifth chapter is the main conclusions of this paper and policy recommendations.After summarizing the above analysis results,it provides some policy suggestions for the sustainable development of population and economy in our country.There are four innovations of this paper.Frst,many researches only study the relationship between a regional demographic dividend and economic growth.This paper makes an empirical analysis with the panel data collected from 29 provinces in China.Second,many previous studies use the theory of population dependency ratio studying demographic dividend.But there are some differences between the theory of population dependency ratio and the actual population dependency ratio.This paper combines the theory of population dependency ratio and labor participation rate so that theoretical demographic dividend and actual demographic dividend can be distinguished.The research results are more specific,clearer and practical.Third,in the case of our country,the changes of the age structure of the population nationwide is the only source of the demographic dividend,but among the various regions of our country there is a huge difference in different regions.The demographic dividend of different regions is because of the population age structure transition and population flow and the interaction of the city.This paper introduces the economic growth effect of China's demographic dividend with the panel data of 29 provinces.Forth,this paper considers the impact of the "Five Year Plan" on the economy.The deficiencies may be that the population flow data of different regions in China as well as between urban and rural is difficult to find,so the study cannot do quantitative researches on the differences of demographic dividend caused by population flow and the city urbanization of each region,which is the main shortcomings of the article,but also further research direction.