| Since the reform and opening up,China's economic growth has made remarkable achievement,so as to further improve and perfect the socialist economic system which is suitable to china,the one-child policy,the population structure of China has undergoing tremendous changes.During this period,the fertility rate decreasing significantly,the working age population share rising rapidly,the demographic dividend accumulated energy reserves to be released,with the advantage of low labor costs,rapidly make China in a short span of decades to be the world's manufacturing factory.It is gradually formed a kind of excessive reliance on labor input capital and production factors such as the mode of economic growth.With the shortage of labor,wage costs rising sharply,long-term dependence on low price labor cost growth model will also not be conducive to the sustainable and healthy,there is no doubt a huge challenge to China in the period of economic restructuring.Wage price due to the change of population structure continue to rise,which can form a reversing transmission mechanism on economic growth.In the longterm,the price of wages suffering from the difference of level change and the pattern selection form a kind of transmission mechanism for regional economic growth.The population growth will increase the labor age population,which will affect the labor market supply and demand.Thereby affecting the change of regional wages,and wages continued to rise and will cause the complicated situation.On one hand,rising wages can not only improve people's life situation,but also increase the national income,which have positive effect on the growth of promoting national economic;on the other hand rising wages also indicates the rising cost of labor and the company hiring costs,which is not conducive to the transformation and upgrading of enterprise structure.The interaction effects between the demographic transition of population structure and wage changes have an important effect on the coordinated development of regional economy.Different from the beginning of reform and opening up,we need to re-examine the potential impacts of population structure on the future development of China's regional economy.In view of this,this paper mainly focuses on the research of population structure change,wage change and regional economic linkage effect.Through the construction of index interaction effects of population structure and wages,respectively refer to the total dependency ratio,dependency ratio of children and elderly dependency ratio of economic variables to establish the theory model,and using the Chinese provincial panel date from 1995-2014,which reveals the dependency ratio of population rise how to have effect on Regional economic growth,in-depth research and analysis of the three dynamic relationship between development and coordination mechanism.In the quantitative analysis,this paper adopt various identification methods and the control of other potential economic growth of various factors,to overcome the shortcomings of previous studies.At the same time,we will put forward some feasible policies and suggestions based on the current situation of China's ageing problem and the minority of children.The results show that: the rising of total dependency ratio and the increase of the juvenile dependency ratio have a significant negative effect on economic growth.After considering the interaction effect of population structure and wages,the decline of dependency ratio have contribution to economic growth with rising wages continue to be strengthened.The rising of child dependency ratio the inhibitory effect of economic growth with rising wages continued to be weakened,the positive effect of rising wages and labor force population are more than their population burden under pressure.Reasonable higher wages not only can effectively regulate social and population resources,relatively reduce the labor population burden,but also stimulate producers to improve production efficiency and promote economic growth. |
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