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An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of China's Demographic Dividend On Economic Growth

Posted on:2019-01-21Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:K L WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2417330545454736Subject:National Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Since the middle and late 20 th century,the “miracle of growth in East Asia” that has lasted for nearly three decades has opened the prelude to the study of demographic dividends in the academic world.The existing research results show that the demographic dividend of East Asian economic growth plays an indispensable role.Coincidentally,since 1978,the average growth rate of 9.6% for 40 years has undoubtedly been a miracle.As a big country of labor,the demographic dividend factor is the reason why rapid development in China that cannot be ignored.However,as the population changes,the proportion of the labor force decreases,and the increasing aging of the population will gradually reduce this demographic dividend.If China's population structure advantage is a catalyst for growth,then in recent years,this advantage has gradually waned.The old population advantage has ceased to exist and will inevitably become a bottleneck for development.So,how to deal with the adverse effects of the declining demographic dividend and how to find new sources of growth is the focus and purpose of the research.From the existing theoretical research,the academic community has basically affirmed the positive effect of the demographic dividend.The existing research is mainly to use population demographic ratio as a measure of demographic dividend,but there are certain defects in this kind of operation.Labor age does not necessarily mean actual production behavior,and non-working age does not mean that only consuming behavior.Based on this,based on the traditional population dependency ratio,other metrics are added.The paper reintroduces the effective dependency ratio and capacity dependency ratio,and uses three population dependency ratios to comprehensively reflect the specific conditions of the changes in the demographic dividend of China and its impact results.It provides theoretical support and policy recommendations for responding to the demographic decline phase.First,the paper reviews the related concepts of the demographic dividend and its measurement indicators.In the selection of indicators,the article focuses on the traditional population dependency ratio,effective dependency ratio and capacity dependency ratio.Next,the thesis introduced the relevant theoretical results of predecessors' research and tried to comprehensively sort out the related theories ofdemographic dividends and the related theories with the internal relations of the economy,and lay the theoretical foundation for the thesis research.Then based on the C-D production function,through the model derivation,the internal influence mechanism between the two is analyzed.Then it analyzes the situation and analyzes the background and causes of the demographic dividend in China by describing the demographic transition and age structure changes in China from 1949 to 2017.Following the introduction of changes in China's demographic dividend and economic growth,unlike most studies,the paper has added an effective dependency ratio that reflects the labor participation rate and an ability dependency ratio that reflects human capital on the basis of the traditional population dependency ratio.Measure the change of China's demographic dividend.Based on the theoretical research,the paper uses the adjusted CD production function to derive the factors affecting economic growth,and uses the macroeconomic data of China from 1978 to 2016 to use the traditional population dependency ratio,effective dependency ratio,and ability respectively for the demographic dividend changes.Dependence ratio is measured and linked to economic growth.Through empirical analysis,the paper finds that these three metrics are significantly related to per capita income,that is,there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between demographic dividend changes and economic growth.The empirical results show that the traditional ratio of population dependency ratio rose by 1%,the per capita income decreased by3.78%,the effective dependency ratio decreased by 2.9% for every 1% increase,and the per capita income decreased by 1.65% for every 1% increase in ability dependency ratio.The increase in labor participation rate and human capital will weaken the negative impact of the decline in the demographic dividend.In order to analyze the short-term impact clearly and intuitively,the paper derives the short-term fluctuation equations of economic growth and the three dependent ratios of population through the short-term distribution lag model,empirically finding the impact of the demographic dividend change in the short-term.Finally,through theoretical and empirical analysis,the analysis results are obtained and corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.The proposed policy recommendations are mainly based on the following six aspects: First,to relax the birthpolicy;Second,to extend the retirement age;Third,to increase the labor participation rate;Fourth,to enhance human capital;Fifth,to change the growth mode;Sixth,to improve the pension system.
Keywords/Search Tags:Population age structure, Demographic dividend, Economic growth, Population dependency ratio, Human capital
PDF Full Text Request
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