The Influence Of Demographic Change On Commercial Housing Price In Xi'an City Based On Vector Auto-regression (VAR) Model

With the processing of commercialization and socialization of the real estate in China,urban housing prices showed a rising trend correspondingly.Besides the influence of the economic development,national policies adjustment and changes in people's ideas,the demographic structure change is also one of the important factors on the urban housing prices in recent years.Based on the data of demographic and the urban housing prices in the period of 2004 to 2015,the relationship between of them was systematic analyzed using auto-regression(VAR)model in this study.The raw data of demographic and the urban housing prices in Xi'an City were collected,and a VAR model was established based on the effects of population age structure,the family size,migration structure,sex structure,education structure,employment structure and urban and rural structure on the housing prices in Xi'an city.Then,impulse response function analysis and variance analysis of the model were carried out by unit root stationarity test,co-integration test and Granger causality test.The results of the empirical study show that,the population age structure was the main impact factor on the housing prices in Xi'an city,while the population age structure,the family size and migration structure had long-term effects on it.With the aging of population of the Xi'an city is becoming more and more serious,the ratio of children(15-64 years)will continue decreasing and will lead to the rise of the housing price;however,the momentum is insufficient.Thus,in the condition of the decreasing ratio of migration and the increasing of the population,the housing prices would increase with small gains in Xi'an city.Although the short-term changes of the housing price is impacted by the economic structure of itself,the long-term effects of demographic structure changes on the housing price will emerging.Based on the results obtain in this study,more open policy should be performed to maintain the demographic stable in the future,and release the market pressure caused by the urban housing price change.