A Study On The Impact Of Demographic Changes On Urban Housing Prices

Since the reform of housing system in 1998,housing prices have been in creasing rapidly.In recent years,the continuous rise of housing prices has seri ously hindered the healthy development of the economy,making the economy risky to fall out of reality,and greatly increasing the residential cost of reside nts.How to guide the rational development of the real estate market,so that t he healthy development of the economy has become the focus of the current r eal estate policy formulation.The study of house price will help us to underst and the mechanism of house price rising and provide theoretical basis for futur e real estate regulation policies.Population is the basis of economic developme nt,and the inflow of population is also the most important reason for the rise of housing prices.With the post-80 s and post-90 s employment,the impact of changes in population structure on housing prices is also growing.Therefore,f rom the perspective of demographic structure changes,this paper analyses its i mpact on housing prices and draws the following conclusions:(1)From the perspective of population spatial structure,the increase of fl oating population and household registration population will lead to the rise of housing prices.The increase of household registration population has a greater impact on housing prices than the increase of resident population.The impact of population growth on housing prices is greater than that of commercial hou sing prices.From the age structure of the population,the increase of the depe ndency ratio of the population has a restraining effect on housing prices.The increase of the dependency ratio of the total population will lead to an increas e in the burden of the young population and a decrease in purchasing power,so it will restrain the demand for commercial housing.From the perspective of population and social structure,the improvement of per capita education level will increase housing prices,and the improvement of education level will pushup housing prices through the increase of income and demand grade.In addit ion,there are differences in the impact of men and women on housing prices.(2)Micro-analysis shows that the impact of the change of household regis tration population on housing prices is relatively stable,while the impact of th e increase of permanent population on housing prices has been greatly improve d in recent years,which may be due to the deregulation of the household regi stration system.Age has an inverted U-shaped relationship with housing prices.Age at 33.5 and 34 has the greatest positive impact on residential and comm ercial housing.Education years and housing prices show a "U-shaped" relations hip.The lowest impact of population education level on housing prices is abo ut 11 years.It belongs to high school education,that is,the population with c ollege or higher education may have a positive impact on housing prices.(3)Intermediate mechanism analysis found that the longer the distance of population flow,the more likely it is to promote the rise of housing prices,a nd the increase of mobile time may be conducive to the decline of housing pr ices.From the impact of age,the range of mobility,time of mobility and un married will increase the pulling effect of age on housing prices.The farther t he distance of mobility,the longer the time,the stronger the positive pulling e ffect of age on housing prices.Compared with the married population,the incr easing age of unmarried population has a greater impact on housing prices.Fr om the perspective of social structure,the scope of mobility and the status of household registration will reduce the pulling effect of education on housing pr ices,while the time of mobility will increase the pulling effect of education o n housing prices.(4)Heterogeneity analysis is divided into three regions: East,West and C entral China.The results show that there are significant differences between th e spatial structure of population and housing prices in different regions.The in crease of permanent population and floating population in the eastern region ha s the greatest impact on housing prices,while the increase of population in th e central and western regions has less impact on housing prices.The relations hip between population age structure and housing price in the eastern region shows a significant inverted U-shaped relationship,while that in the western reg ion shows a U-shaped relationship.There is no significant relationship between population age structure and housing price in the western region.The social s tructure of population in the eastern region shows a "U-shaped" relationship wi th housing prices,while the central and western regions show an "inverted U-s haped" relationship.