The Impact Of Population Structure Change On Housing Prices

Since 1998,Chinese house has been monetized and commercialized,housing prices have continued to rise,and the high prices of housing prices have caused a great deal of trouble to the lives of the general public.At the same time,the population structure of our country is also changing.On the one hand,as the development of our economy,a large number of people flow from rural areas to cities,from the central and western regions to the east.On the other hand,the degree of urban aging,the proportion of second-class and third-class employed people and the average educational level are always improving.Those change of population structure affects people's demand for housing and then has an important effect on housing price.Based on the perspective of urban migration,our paper studies the impact of demographic changes on prices of commercial residential buildings during the period from 1999 to 2016.In the course of the research,according to the demography theory and the research results of previous scholars,the population structure is divided into three substructures: population age structure,population employment structure and population education structure.Our paper use panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1999 to 2016 to study the effect of population structure change on housing price,and based on threshold regression model,this paper further discusses the structural abrupt effect of the age structure on housing price.The results show that the age structure has different effects on housing prices in different regions.In the whole country and eastern regions,the age structure has a restraining effect on housing prices.However,the structure of the elderly population in the central and western regions has a significant contribution to house prices.Moreover,the impact of age structure on commodity housing prices is of a stage difference.Estimates based on a national sample show that the impact of the old-age dependency ratio on housing prices changed from negative to positive after 2004.In addition,the population employment structure and the population education structure have a significant positive impact on commodity housing prices.And there are some regional differences.In the eastern region,the contribution of employment structure and education structure to the rise of house prices is greater than that in the central and western regions.The theoretical and empirical studies in this paper also show that,On the one hand,the inflow of population has a direct positive effect on housing prices,on the other hand,it indirectly affects housing prices by acting on each substructure of the population.Specifically,The inflow of population optimizes local age structure,employment structure and education structure,which will increase the local housing demand and push up house prices.In view of the research results of the paper,we put forward relevant policy recommendations for the development of real estate market.First of all,it is necessary to establish a unified national population data platform and strengthen the population and housing market linkage studies.The temporal and spatial distribution of the population is a key factor in determining housing demand.Therefore,in the study of the real estate market,attention must be paid to the analysis of population factors.Second,the government should take early measures to deal with the negative impact of aging on housing prices and avoid large fluctuations in house prices.Although our empirical study found that rising housing prices in the Midwest can be driven by an aging population,the change in the age structure of the population,that is,the aging of population,will not continually promote housing prices.In order to counter the negative effects of an increase in the elderly population,our government should fully encourage fertility.Third,the government should make full use of the reform of the household registration system to achieve the purpose of destocking.In details,the government should eliminate the differences between urban and rural residents in household registration management,integrate the immigrants into the basic public service system and ensure that migrant workers enjoy the same treatment as local residents.If they can attract the migrant workers to settle down,new housing demand will be released,and the stock pressure of the small and medium-sized cities will be lightened.Finally,it is necessary to strengthen the protection of floating population in small and medium-sized cities,reasonably divert the inflow of people from big cities,and stabilize housing prices in big cities.Small and medium-sized cities should formulate policies for the introduction of talents with differential characteristics in light of local development needs and the direction of industrial transformation.By relaxing the policy of settling down,granting rental subsidies and building long term apartments for young people to retain talents,the floating population can be effectively guided to transform into small and medium-sized cities,and the pressure of high house prices in big cities can be alleviated.