Research On The Impact Of Demographic Structure On Housing Prices In China

Since the implementation of housing reform policy in China from 1998,the real estate market started to develop quickly,however,with the soaring house prices,the resulting residents to buy a house gradually exposed problems such as difficult,life pressure,lodging as one of the most basic demands,the price changes is a national significant livelihood issues,has aroused the attention of the society.At the same time,China’s population structure has undergone major changes in recent years,with issues such as a low birth rate,a more and more serious aging population,an unbalanced gender ratio and a high population mobility rate in some areas becoming increasingly prominent.The significance of housing is to provide services for people.The change of housing price is inevitably related to population factors,so it is of certain practical significance to study the relationship between population factors and housing price changes.Based on the panel data of housing price and population structure of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2010 to 2019,this paper uses spatial econometric model to conduct empirical analysis to study the relationship between population structure change and housing price.First of all,this article elaborates on the factors that cause our country’s current high housing prices in four aspects:housing commercialization,demographic changes,accelerated economic development,and the impact of policy adjustments,then introduce the related concepts of population structure,and explain the theoretical mechanism of the impact of population factors on housing prices from the perspectives of population natural structure,population social structure and population geographical structure.Because our country region is a large country,there is a certain gap in the economic development status of various regions,this paper points the whole level and the eastern,central and western regions level of housing prices and population structure since 2010-2019,describe the change of analysis,the results show that the national integrated with regional housing prices and population structure,there exist certain differences between then.Based on the weight matrix of economic space,the spatial Dubin model is used to empirically analyze the impact of population structure changes on housing prices at different regional levels.The empirical analysis results show that the Moran’s I index of the average housing price is positive by the spatial autocorrelation test,that is,the house prices level has a positive spatial agglomeration,showing that the house prices in adjacent areas will have a certain positive effect on each other.The main demographic variables that have a significant impact on the housing price are sex ratio,per capita disposable income of urban residents,proportion of employed people in the tertiary industry and population mobility rate,and all of these variables have a positive influence on the housing prices in this region.When studying the influence between adjacent regions,within the scope of China and the east,middle region,urban residents per capita disposable income brings significant inhibition to the neighboring areas of housing prices,and in the western region it brings promoting effect to the adjacent regional house prices,but the result is not significant.Proportion of the tertiary industry employment impact on housing prices in adjacent reflect relatively significant in east and west,in the eastern area,employment proportion in the third industry is to promote housing prices of adjacent areas,the population mobility in China and the east,middle region within the scope of promoting effect to the adjacent area housing prices.However,in the western region,it causes inhibition of house prices in the surrounding areas.This difference in influence is mainly caused by the relatively backward overall economic development level and the relatively underdeveloped transportation level in the western region.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions to promote the sound development of the real estate market,improve the population structure,and coordinate the balanced development of the region.