Research On The Effect Of The Old-age Dependency Ratio On Fertility Based On GWR Model

After China enforced the one-child policy for more than 30 years,the population problem has been alleviated,but the age structure of the population has followed.The decrease in the number of newborns and the gradual rise of the elderly population make the age structure of our population increasingly serious.For this reason,China has continuously adjusted its fertility policies in the past decade to try to improve the age structure of our population.However,the implementation of these fertility policies has not been satisfactory.The reason is that China's vast territory,different levels of economic development,customs and habits of different regions have different implementation levels of fertility policies and differences in fertility concepts.The current "full two-child" fertility policy is difficult to guarantee in all regions.To achieve the desired effect.Therefore,this article believes that family planning policies should implement differentiated birth policies based on different regions,rather than being equal.In other words,different family planning policies for different regions can achieve the rationalization of the age structure of the population and the balance of the total population.This article first analyzes the age structure of the population,economic distribution,and population data in developed countries,and puts forward the hypothesis that the dependency ratio of the elderly has a suppressive effect on the fertility rate.Then,taking the prefecture-level cities in the country as a sample,an empirical study is made on the hypothesis of the relationship between the old-age dependency ratio and the fertility rate.The geographical weighted regression model(GWR)was used to study the effect of the elderly dependency ratio on the fertility rate in 341 prefecture-level cities in China.The spatial heterogeneity relationship between the elderly dependency ratio and the population fertility rate was described in detail.Each prefecture-level city is divided into two groups for research.Finally,draw conclusions and put forward different fertility policy recommendations for different regions based on empirical results.The main research conclusions of this article are as follows:First,the current population situation in China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta region,Sichuan-Chongqing region,and East China is as follows:low fertility rate,high old-age dependency ratio,and the effect of old-age dependency ratio on fertility rate Larger.Therefore,the "three children" policy needs to be liberalized to reduce the pressure of the workforce to support the elderly;Second,China's central China,Guangdong and Guangxi provinces,and Shandong province,where the overall fertility rate is high,and the elderly dependency ratio is around the average level in China The effect of old-age dependency ratio on fertility is not particularly great.We should continue to implement the“all-two children" policy and advocate a balanced gender ratio;thirdly,Yungui,ShanGanning,Xinjiang,Xizang and Qinghai generally have higher fertility rates and lower elderly support.However,considering that these areas are in areas where ethnic minorities are concentrated,the "two children alone"or "two children alone" policies should be implemented to increase investment in basic education.