Study On Space Distribution Evolution Of Population In Anhui Province

The regional differences in the distribution of population in Anhui Province are obvious,it is mainly reflected by the trend of less north and south,and northern and southern areas,the combined effects of population,nature,and socio-economic factors have caused this spatial distribution pattern.Studying the distribution characteristics and changes of population in Anhui Province can help to fully understand the current situation and development process of population distribution in Anhui Province,it can provide a reference for the rational distribution of population and guide the flow of population;Study the influencing factors of population distribution in Anhui Province is of great significance for promoting the coordinated development of population distribution and social and economic development in Anhui Province.This paper uses spatial statistical analysis methods from the three aspects of cities,counties and small towns to analyze the population distribution and evolution characteristics of Anhui Province,the combination of analysis and quantitative analysis has studied the influencing factors of the spatial evolution of the population,using the grey forecasting model to make further predictions on the population development trends in various regions of Anhui Province.,after research,the following conclusions have been drawn:First of all,from the perspective of cities,the urban population in Anhui Province tends to grow in a polarized manner.the first city in Anhui is Hefei,thsi city has a population growth rate that is much faster than other cities;The province's net outflow population is huge,and the population in most of the ciyies is a net outflow,from 2011 to 2015,the trend of population return is obvious;The net inflow of urban urban residents in the province is mainly concentrated in the central and southern regions of Anhui Province,and the net outflow of the urban residents in the province is mainly concentrated in the northern part of Anhui;the inter-cities of population migration in the province are mainly the provinces with more developed economies,and most of them are regional centers;The flow of inter-provincial migration shows obvious regionality and concentration in space,mainly concentrated in the more developed regions of the Yangtze River Delta,and population migration mainly concentrated in northern Anhui.Secondly,from the county perspective,the spatial distribution of county population in Anhui Province is more significant,the northern region in Anhui is densely populated and the population density decreases from north to south;The overall Moran's I index of the county population density in 2000,2010,2015 is positive,the population distribution has a certain degree of spatial agglomeration;Local autocorrelation analysis shows that the northern part of Anhui Province is the core area of population distribution,and the southern area is the sparse area,and the diversity of the spatial agglomeration in the northern area is greater than that in the southern area.Finally,from the perspective of small cities and towns,the population size of small towns in Anhui Province as a whole is relatively low,but the scale of the overall scale is increasing,and the population scale is characterized by high north and low south.From the analysis of urban and rural population distribution,the level of urbanization in the province has entered a middle stage of rapid development,the spatialization of urbanization among the small towns is the largest,followed by the city,and the difference in urbanization is the smallest;From the city to the county to the small town,the level of urbanization has been reduced step by step,and the three scales all show the characteristics of high urbanization level in souther and central Anhui,and lower level in northern Anhui.Gray correlation degree and spatial regression analysis show that the main demographic factors affecting population density are natural population growth rates,which have always had a positive impact on population density,and each year has the deepest impact on population density;Secondary industry and the proportion of output value and investment in fixed assets have a positive impact on the growth of population density and have a greater degree of impact,these two factors are the main economic reasons which affect the size of population density;the number of hospital beds per 1,000 people positively increases the population density,the impact is significantly high,which are the main social causes and important driversFrom the perspective of future population development trends in Anhui Province,without major policy intervention,the population of cities in Anhui Province will continue to grow in the next nine years,and there will be a large gap between cities;The population growth rate in northern Anhui is expected to be higher than the souther Anhui,the population's growth in Hefei.is fastest in central Anhui.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the population migration ? population distribution and coordinated development of urbanization?population distribution and economic balance development and the formulation of industrial policies.