Study On The Evaluation Of Contractor's Risks In EPC Project Based On The Grey Fuzzy-CIM Model

EPC (Engineering, procurement, construction) mode, as the intensive and efficient general contracting model represents, has become an important direction of China's construction projects EPC model development. Since the EPC mode covers engineering design, procurement and construction phases of construction process, which has along construction period, and requiring high degree of specialization, large internal and external environment changes, and contractors quik of management experience, the EPC contract terms and technical specifications related to master limitations, resulting in the contractor's lack of understanding of risk. As the same time, the lack of risk management process system and risk evaluation method, resulting in the risk of loss of contractor in engineering practice, cannot achieve the desired objectives. Therefore, establishing a sound risk assessment system, and using the scientific methods for risk index evaluation, develop appropriate responses based on the evaluation results, are the key to resolve the contractor the risk of loss.Firstly, we reviewed and combed the development of EPC mode, several aspects of risk management and risk evaluation of EPC project, and summed up studies inadequate of the risk identification, risk assessment at the presence. Based on the contents of the EPC model, organizational structure, characteristics and risk characteristics, summed up the difference with other traditional items. Then we emphasized the need for risk assessment from three pionts based on the large number of risk events in EPC project management practices.Secondly, from the implementation phase of EPC project, we divided it into five stages:the tender stage, the design stage, the procurement phase, construction phase and commissioning phase, chose the survey methods and brainstorming to identificate risks on the various stages, then established risk evaluation index system.Then, analyzed the characteristics of the risk index system that built in risk factors, through comparing a variety of methods applicability of risk assessment, selected the calculate simple analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight. We combined gray fuzzy theory and the CIM model as the risk assessment method, builded the gray fuzzy -CIM risk assessment model. Combining the qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation ensured the objectivity of the evaluation results. The model can integrate overall risk level and various stages risk level in EPC project, providing a theoretical reference for contractors reasonable risk-averse.Finally, take Kowloon City project for example, through risk identification and risk assessment, obtained overall risk and the various stages of the project, verified the feasibility of gray fuzzy-CIM risk assessment model. Put forward some corresponding countermeasures to circumvent the higher risk, and emphasized the role of risk assessment to project managements and decision-making.