Future Overruns Of Personal Accounts In The Public Pension In The Context Of An Aging Of Population

The 21st century is the era of an aging population. At present, all the world's developed countries have entered the aging society, many developing countries is being or about to be an aging society. As early as 1999, China had entered the aging society, becoming one of the earlier entered the aging society in the world. Accounting for about 20 percent of the world's aging population, China is the largest country in the world on the aging population. Aging fast, irreversible development, poses a severe challenge to China's current pension insurance system. Expanding pension insurance fund gap is becoming a major obstacle to China's current pension insurance system's maintain and sustainable development. Therefore, research of the balance of the pension insurance found in the context of aging of the population, has a very important theoretical and practical significance to promote the reform of the pension insurance system and to ease the pressure on the payment of the pension insurance fund.Population science, social security, science, actuarial science as a guide, take the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of the combination of research methods to study the personal account of the balance of payments problems, the text is divided into six parts, all parts of the main contents are as follows:The first chapter is an introduction. Through the description of the present situation of the current challenges of an aging population problem, analyze the problems and challenges facing the pension insurance system in China, then,make the literature review on the theory of empirical research at home and abroad, and elaborated the idea of this paper.The second chapter is introduced the content of this article. First, we elaborated the definition of aging of population and aging of the aged and the relationship between them. Then, introduce the course of the reform of the pension insurance system in China, and pointed out the problems.The third chapter is to build the model. Based on individual pension accounts, actuarial science, demography and other methods, I built the overruns model of personal accounts in the context of an aging population, and predict Sichuan Province's personal accounts over expenditure between 2010 and 2052.The fourth chapter is constructed in accordance with Chapter III of the model, sensitivity analysis was performed on the parameters and adjust the feasibility analysis of these parameters. Give reference for the following recommendations.The fifth chapter introduces the world's major four pension insurance model, by introducing the pension reform process in these countries, hoping to help the reform of the pension insurance system in China.The sixth chapter is the recommendations and summary of this article. According to the analysis of the above model and combined with the reform experience of other countries, the author puts forward four-point proposal, then, made a summary of the full text.Actuarial model constructed in this paper is relatively simple, simplifies a number of factors, at the same time, study of some problems is not deep enough, such as how to determine the reasonable billing rates, increase the retirement age and so on, these can be the subject of further study.