An Empirical Study On Financial Distress Prediction Of China's Manufacturing Listing Corporation

With the continuous development of economy and the increasing competition in the market,China's manufacturing industry is facing an unprecedented crisis and challenges. Many companies in trouble because of financial problems, and has brought a severe test to the survival and development of enterprises, so it is particularly important to study on early warning of financial crisis of our country manufacturing industry listed companies. If we can establish a perfect risk monitoring system, companies can timely avoid or transfer the risk,reduce unnecessary losses. At the same time to build a scientific and accurate financial crisis warning system has very important theory meaning and realistic meaning for the development of the economy of our country.Therefore, this paper uses empirical methods to study the financial crisis early warning of China's manufacturing industry listing corporation.This paper is divided into five parts, the first part of the paper described research background,research significance, literature review, content framework, research methods and innovative points. The second part mainly introduces the definition of financial crisis related concepts and relevant theoretical analysis, provide a theoretical basis for the later empirical analysis.The third part analyzed the influencing factors of manufacturing listing corporation of the financial crisis from the two macro and micro level, The macro aspects include: economic environment, the impact of the economic cycle fluctuation and the national policy, the microcosmic aspects include: debt financing ratio, cash flow, internal control system and enterprise development strategy. The fourth part is the design of empirical research, This chapter study and analysis by SPSS software, With 100 manufacturing listing corporation as the research sample, selects 26 specific indicators as variables, And use EVA adjusted several financial indexes, Then has carried on the significant analysis, correlation test,Logistic regression analysis, finally build a financial crisis early-warning model and obtain a better prediction result. The fifth part is the conclusion and prospect. This paper through empirical research obtained the following conclusions:Based on EVA financial crisis early warning models is higher than the traditional financial indicators of early warning model in discriminant accuracy; the closer of financial crisis of the year, the better of financial data prediction effect; Company profitability and growth ability and cash flow is a key factor to determine whether the company in the financial crisis. Then, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the financial crisis of China's manufacturing industry listing Corporation. Finally, this paper expounds the deficiencies of this paper and makes a prospect for the future development.