Research Of CO₂ Emission From Fossil Energy Consumption Of Industry In Anhui Province

Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of Chinese economy, energy consumption has increased rapidly. Meantime, a series of environmental problems has been obvious progressively. Since 2006, in order to effectively reduce environmental pollution and realize the harmonious development of economy, society and environment in the rapid advance of the process of industrialization and urbanization, according to Chinese basic national conditions and the stage of economic and social development, our government has promulgated policies to strengthen the energy-saving and emission-reduction, to promote low-carbon development layout and development of low-carbon industry. As one of the six central provinces, Anhui province has achieved rapid development economically since 2004. Now, Anhui is undertaking the transfer of the Yangtze River Delta region to the central and western underdeveloped provinces in economic strategy, while facing enormous pressure on energy-saving and emission-reduction.Industry, which is the largest carbon emission industry in Anhui province, is determined as the research object in this paper. On the basis of domestic and foreign advanced research, the core ideas of this study were established. First of all, according to the consumption of different varieties of fossil energy, annual emission of CO2 from 2004 to 2014 was calculated. Moreover, the current situation of Anhui province industry development and carbon emission were analysed. Secondly, the extended STIRPAT model was constructed, to analyse the driving factors of carbon emission from industrial fossil energy consumption and carbon emission intensity in Anhui province. Then, CO2 emission from fossil energy consumption from 2015 to 2030 of industry in Anhui province under three development scenarios were calculated by using same dimensions additional grey dynamic prediction method GM (1.1). Finally, through SWOT-PEST analysis, countermeasures for Anhui province industrial low-carbon development were put forward.Results showed that CO2 emissions from fossil energy consumption of industry in Anhui Province had increased to 425.1 million tons in 2014 from 164.4 million tons in 2004. The rapid development of industry and energy structure depending on coal significantly boost the growth of carbon emission. Urbanization level, scale of industrial investment, industrial added value per capita, R & D intensity and energy intensity increased by 1%, carbon emissions will change 0.603%,0.1183%,0.176%,0.3288% and -0.1957% respectively; carbon intensity will change -0.325%,-0.0413%,-0.1763%,-0.1618% and 0.278% respectively. Inhibition of carbon emission from industrial fossil energy consumption in Anhui province mainly attributes to the improvement of energy efficiency, however, it is difficult to offset the leading role of the development of industry economy. Six high energy-consuming industries such as ferrous metal industry and electricity industry in Anhui province are the largest source of industrial carbon emission, and they will have a critical impact on the overall carbon emissions trend of industry of Anhui province. Carbon emission will continue increasing before 2025, therefore, Anhui province should establish carbon emission market, establish energy-saving and environmental protection industry base, and carry out low-carbon experimental work of key industrial enterprises. This study has reference significance for the development of low-carbon industry in Anhui province.