The Old Wharf Renovation Project Risk Assessment Studies Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

Old wharf renovation project has become an integral part of the port construction, undertake the parts of the new port project elements, both at the same time have their own unique characteristics. However, at present our country is only for new wharf engineering risk analysis and evaluation, is not about the old wharf renovation project risk evaluation. We study Old wharf renovation project by using a hybrid mode of project management,risk management and mathematic statistics.This dissertation analyses from risk identification, weight and Fuzzy ComPerhensive Evaluation. In the risk identification of the old wharf reconstruction project, combined with the research results and empirical data of risk assessment on the newly constructed wharf project, the check list is applied as a tool for risk identification to analyze and identify the risk factors that may exist in the old wharf reconstruction project. The risk evaluation index system of the old wharf reconstruction project featured of five first-level indicators, including natural risks, economic risks, construction risks, political and social risks and management risks, and 21 related secondary indicators is established.To determine the weights, the risk factor weights of each index layer and rule layer are calculated by fuzzy theory according to the scores made by the experts on the risk factor weights of old wharf reconstruction project. Meanwhile the fault tolerance judgment of the indicator system and error analysis are used to determine whether the selections of weights are right or wrong, providing an effective, appropriate and more accurate method of determining the weights.In the risk evaluation of old wharf reconstruction project, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted as the risk assessment method to take into account both qualitative and quantitative evaluations, which has achieved good results. Through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the evaluation model with the main structure of risk factor set U, evaluation set V and membership degree set S is established at the same time. Combined with the actual situation of Tianjin Port 9-11# old dock reconstruction project, through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the results are obtained that the project has general risks. According to the evaluation results, the dissertation carries out the analysis on risk identification of old wharf reconstruction project, based on which appropriated suggestions are put forward.