The Effect Evaluation Of The Capital Stock Of China's Rural Financial Policy Based On Hsiao Method

China's rural economic development has made great achievement since the reform and opening, but issues of agriculture, farmer and rural area still remain. The state council specially published the number one document on the rural reform and development from 2004 to 2014, which shows its emphasis on "three agriculture" problem. Deng Xiaoping pointed out:"finance, the core of modern economy, is very important." Since 1978, the government published a series of policy which promoted the innovation of rural finance and made the rural financial market active in order to better solve the problem of "three agriculture" problem. Correctly making assessment on China's rural financial policy is an important step to promote the rural financial reform and make it better to serve the rural economic development. According to the endogenous economic growth theory, scholars make further research on the mechanism of financial development's effect on economic growth.Financial development affects economic growth through the savings rate, the conversion from saving to investment and capital marginal productivity. It has been widely recognized that the financial development promotes economic growth through the capital stock path. It can also be applied to the related research on the rural financial development of our country. The capital stock, as the target variable of evaluating rural financial policy in our country, can more directly evaluate the effect of rural financial policy's capital stock.On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign research, the paper defines the concept of the capital stock effect, combs the rural financial policy since the reform and opening and measures the capital stock of rural areas. A phased analysis of the rural financial policy's effect has been made on rural capital formation from three aspects, including rural financial scale, saving, the conversion from saving to investment. Based on the normative analysis, the thesis uses the effect of the capital stock as target variables, adopts the method of Hsiao (2010) which evaluates the macroeconomic policy, takes ease rural banking access policies published by the banking regulatory commission (CBRC) as example, according to the principle of choosing the optimal equation, chooses 7 countries'capital-output ratio data from 23 countries ta as a control group, among which are Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland, Sweden, the UK, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, the United States, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, simulates the capital-output ratio when our country wasn't intervened, finally evaluates the 2006 broaden access policy with the fitted values which can build support policy after the implementation of "the facts" value. The results show that the capital stock effect is positive. Broaden access policy increases the rural areas'marginal productivity of capital in China, promotes the rural economic growth. A policy suggestion is presented from the perspective of promoting the rural financial development and the economic growth.