The Research On The Prediction Method Of Expressway Toll Revenue

The Prediction of Expressway tolls is the basis of expressway managers and investors to formulate long-term strategy, and make the business decision as well as draw up the preparation and inspection plan. By establishing a perfect precise toll revenue forecast system, tolls on the freeway management for long period income have more quantitative understanding, to develop a long-term and stable development strategy, can according to the change of various factors to test at the same time, analyze the existing in the operation management of deviation and possible problems, for managers to adjust operation strategy, the adoption of countermeasures, so as to ensure operation management work in the right orbit. Therefore, scientific and accurate toll revenue forecast for the future appear particularly important.First of all, the thesis detailed analysis from two aspects of traffic volume and fee policy for expressway tolls prediction research status at home and abroad, summarize and draw lessons from domestic and foreign related research theory and practical experience. Secondly, several common forecasting method and the traditional expressway toll revenue forecasting methods comparative research and analysis, and using a large amount of data to practice verification, end up with a new prediction method, based on neural network of expressway tolls nonlinear grey combination prediction method, and on this basis to establish the corresponding mathematical model, then through the MATLAB platform to its implementation, standardize the prediction method of the operation flow, compiled a set of reasonable and complete prediction method. Finally, the forecasting method applied to Gui Yang's three expressway toll revenue forecast to 2012, for its verification, the final prediction results show that the proposed method in expressway tolls, has high accuracy and practical, widely suitable for various situation of the expressway toll revenue forecasts.