Analysis Of Environmental Pressure And Influence Factors In Henan Province Based On IPAT Equation And Its Extended Model

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC）released the fifth global climate change assessment report in 2014,it said that the main cause of global warming is the greenhouse gas emissions and other human driving factor since the middle of the 20 th century. And the important part of the greenhouse gas is CO₂,which,the vast majority of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions from fossil energy consumption activities. With the increasing of the global greenhouse effect, the CO₂ emission reduction has become the focus of attention. Coal dominated energy consumption structure makes China become the world’s largest CO₂ emitter, carbon emission reduction task is arduous. In order to achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction 40%-45% in 2020,China has put energy conservation and emission reduction into the long-term planning of national economic and social development. Control of energy consumption and reduce energy intensity has become an effective way to achieve this goal. Energy consumption is not only the main driving force of economic growth, but also the main source of environmental problems. Henan Province as a major economic province of China, energy consumption continues to rise, the sharp contradiction between supply and demand of energy and the deteriorating environment in the process of the rapid economic development. It is urgent to have a more profound understanding of energy consumption in Henan province. In this context, this paper selects the energy consumption as an indicator of environmental impact. The energy consumption situation of Henan province and the impact of human activities on energy consumption in Henan province were analyzed.Energy consumption in Henan Province, in addition to the phenomenon of decline in 2013, the remaining years of energy consumption has been in a rising trend. Energy consumption structure has been dominated by coal, coal occupies an absolute advantage in energy consumption, its proportion has been maintained at more than 77%,but it shows a declining trend in the proportion of energy consumption. Oil, natural gas and hydro-power accounted for the proportion of energy consumption is relatively low, but the three have shown a rising trend. In addition, energy consumption is mainly concentrated in the second industry, and industrial energy consumption occupies the absolute position of the second industry energy consumption. In 2005,the spatial distribution of the high energy consumption area and the higher energy consumption area of Henan province presents the characteristic of "C", and the low energy consumption areas occupy most of Henan province. By 2014,the spatial distribution of the high energy consumption area and the higher energy consumption area showed the spatial characteristics of the "ten" character, and most of Henan province belongs to the medium energy consumption area. The trend of energy consumption spatial agglomeration type area in Henan Province is east-west direction in 2005,by 2014,the trend turns into the north-south direction. But whether it is in 2005 or 2014,the high value areas of energy consumption in Henan province are concentrated in Yuxi, Yubei and Yuzhong area, the agglomeration types of Yudong and Yunan region is not significant.By using the IPAT equation, it is analyzed the driving effect of population（P）,rich（using per capita GDP,A） and Technology（T） of Henan province on environmental impact and quantitative revealed the role of human activities in energy consumption in Henan Province. In 1995-2014,the population and per capita GDP increased by 0.84% and 10.20% respectively, and the energy intensity decreased by 4.17%.Population, rich index can promote the environmental impact, and technical indicators, In contrast. Under the joint action of the three, environmental impact（in this study refers to energy consumption, I） increased by 6.87% per year. At the same time, there is a scenario prediction combined with the needs of economic and social development in Henan Province. To complete the target of average annual growth by 5.6% and 6.3% of energy consumption in Henan Province, the minimum required energy intensity is 0.41 tons of standard coal/million. According to the reducing speed of energy intensity of Henan province at the present stage, by 2020 the energy intensity of Henan province is 0.40 tons of standard coal / million. Thus, it is possible to assume that the four development scenarios are likely to be achieved by 2020,and it shows that it is feasible to reduce energy consumption by technological progress.On this basis, by using of STIRPAT model as an analytic tool, the impact of human activities on energy consumption, such as the population and the degree of prosperity, is analyzed. Population, affluence and modernization are the main cultural factors that threaten the sustainable development of energy consumption in Henan province. At the same time, the Shannon-Weaver formula was used to calculate the diversity index of consumption expenditure of Henan Province, makes the combination feature of the residents’ consumption structure to be quantified, and represented by this index, the inhibitory effect of the changes in the consumption structure of the residents on energy consumption was analyzed. Finally, according to the stage characteristics of the environmental impact multiplier of Henan province, the fluctuation of the energy efficiency of the technology and its reasons are analyzed emphatically. In addition, it is worth to note that the existing sample data can be used to verify the existence of the Kuznets curve, it Indicates that the environmental impact can be slowed down by economic development. But according to the development speed of economy at present stage, to achieve the turning point of the environmental Kuznets curve also takes a longer period of time.Through the above analysis of the characteristics of energy consumption change and related influencing factors in Henan province, some suggestions are given for the control of energy consumption in Henan province: optimizing the industrial structure and limiting the development of high energy consuming industries; commitment to technological innovation and adjusting the energy structure and reducing energy intensity; improving the consumption structure and promoting the rational and green consumption. It is hoped that this study will provide a useful reference for the sustainable development of Henan province’s economy and energy.