The Research Of Optimizing The Primary Energy Consumption Structure In China Based On Carbon Constraints

Global climate change caused by carbon emission put forward a serious challenge for human survival environment,low-carbon economy began to be proposed and accepted by every country in the world.China's energy consumption structure is extremely unreasonable which caused our country to become a big carbon emission country,so it is imminent to optimize and adjust the energy consumption structure of our country.Researching our country's energy consumption structure optimization problem under this background can not only provide the guide for China's energy development plan and emission reduction targets,but also can indicate the direction for the development of low carbon economy in our country.First,this paper reviewed some researches about energy consumption structure and low carbon economy;then it analyzed the situation of our country's primary energy consumption structure and selected some important factors which had an impact on our country's energy consumption structure.The extent that factors influence energy consumption structure is discussed by grey incidence degree analysis.Next,a prediction model based on Markov chains was built,which has been predicted the energy consumption structure in two different scenarios from 2015 to 2030 in China.After that,through combining IPAT model and scenario analysis,this easy constructed a prediction model and forecasted the consumption situation from 2015 to 2030 in China.On this basis,considering carbon emission and taking the minimum of carbon intensity as the target,this paper established a goal programming model,and conducted an empirical analysis on our country's primary energy consumption structure from 2015 to 2030.At last,based on results,it put forward some countermeasures which may do something with our country's primary energy consumption structure.