A Simulation Study On The Green Growth System Model Of Chinese Manufacturing Industry

As a paradigm for sustainability, green growth is commonly regarded as an approach to breaking away from economic stagnation and receives widespread attention by theorists and supranational institutions. China is also more and more emphasizing on green economy, seeking to go forward to green growth. However, it is still a relatively new concept without enough quantitative research findings, practice are facing some difficulties. Manufacturing industry is both an important driving force of economic growth and a source of environmental pollution. It is the most important part to alleviate the conflicts between economic growth and environmental pollution. In this paper, manufacturing industry is selected to be the research object. Based on analysis of the linkages between the subsystems of policy, environment, population and economy, the system dynamics model of green growth of Chinese manufacturing industry is conducted. Firstly, the green growth implementation situation of Chinese manufacturing industry is presented by running the real data; Secondly, by adjusting two variables of investment intensity in industrial pollution control and investment intensity in technology, scenario analysis and decision making are provided to achieve green growth for the manufacturing industry under conditions of resources and environment constraints, contributing to future research and practice of green growth.Results show:Energy consumption per unit output value of manufacturing industry in China is reducing, industrial production efficiency increased gradually; With the promotion of both the growth of manufacturing output and the reduce of economic losses caused by environmental pollution, net output in the manufacturing sector continues to show an upward trend; Social well-being index decreases at first, and then gets a fluctuating increase. Environmental pollution has a great impact on the well-being index. To improve environmental quality and to reduce the "three wastes" emissions can enhance social well-being to a certain extent; Increasing industrial pollution control investment and science and technology investment can significantly increase the net output in the manufacturing sector, reduce energy consumption per unit output value, and have a positive impact on improving the quality of the environment and enhancing social well-being.