| Along with the high-speed rail in the world's planning and construction, a significant economic impact they bringing attracts more and more attention of scholars. For more than ten years, high-speed rail in China developed rapidly. Due to the level of urban economic development varies, the geographical position is also different, the impact of high-speed rail along the city and the region may not be the same. Based on this background, this paper uses grey prediction method with and without comparative analysis, quantitative analysis the impact of the Zhengzhou-Xi'an, Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rails on the urban economic development along the site and the influence degree. The main indicators are accessibility, per capita GDP, industrial structure and urbanization rate, in favor of a clearer understanding of high-speed rail along the site for urban development significance. The results showed that:(1)The opening of the Zhengzhou-Xi'an and Wuhan-Guangzhou high speed rail make the weighted average travel time index of the 22 cities dropped, it means accessibility levels are improved, especially in Miluo^ Leiyang and Qingyuan, and urban transportation development imbalance has eased. The influence of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail on urban accessibility is significantly higher than that of Zhengzhou-Xi'an high-speed rail, because the operating speed of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail is slightly quicker than Zhengzhou-Xi'an high-speed rail. Since the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail length is more than Zhengzhou-Xi'an high-speed rail, weighted average travel time index values of the cities along Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail are higher than Zhengzhou-Xi'an high-speed rail. (2) Regression analysis showed that Zhengzhou-Xi'an and Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rails have a positive significant impact on the per capita GDP, while the gray prediction results show that the actual value of the per capita GDP after the opening of high-speed rails is lower than the predicted value of no high-speed rail. This may be related to the downlink of China's economy after 2009 and the data of grey prediction. In addition, its long-term effect on regional economic growth remains to be further verified. (3)High-speed rail led to the development of the third industries along the most of the cities, increased the proportion of the third industry, has played an extremely important role in promoting the upgrading of regional industrial structure and the development of modernization, but paths are different on different levels of cities. Large and powerful cities have more opportunities, and small cities may be less for the time being. Compared with the Zhengzhou-Xi'an high-speed rail, Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail has a bigger influence on city's industrial structure, because the city industrial structure along the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail foundation is good, and coastal economy industry spread to the interior after connecting the Pearl River Delta region. While cities along Zhengzhou-Xi'an high-speed rail are inland cities, the foundation is relatively weak. (4)High-speed rail has accelerated the improvement of urbanization rate of the cities. The impact on urbanization rate of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail is higher than the Zhengzhou-Xi'an high-speed rail, this is because when there was no high-speed rail, the average urbanization rate of cities along Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail is lower than that of Zhengzhou-Xi'an high-speed rail, so can improve greatly.But the trend of the influence of the two high-speed railways on urbanization rate is different.The difference of the influence of the Zhengzhou-Xi'an high-speed rail on the urbanization rate of different cities increases, while the index value of Wuhan Guangzhou high-speed rail is concentrated to the mean value. Finally, suggestions are made on what strategies and measures should be taken for the region along the high-speed railway. |
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