Research On Different Electricity Cost Considering The Environment And Resources Factor And Electric Substitution

With the continuous development of society and economy, the scale of the development of power industry has been expanding, and the power proportion of terminal energy consumption is increasing, power industry is one of the pillars of social economic development, and plays an important role in the process of economic development in China. Thermal power production in China accounted for the largest proportion of electricity, which, the proportion of thermal power is nearly 40 percentage points higher than the world average level, while the proportion of renewable power is low. Therefore, it is very important to design a good price mechanism, to guide the transformation of power consumption structure through market forces.Firstly, this paper compares the price level of wind power, photovoltaic and thermal power at home and abroad, and decomposes the power generation cost and cost structure of the three kinds of power supply, and discusses the price structure of the three kinds of power generation. Found whether wind or photovoltaic units are showing the trend of declining costs, the future of wind power and photovoltaic power generation unit costs will continue to decline, the cost advantage will gradually become prominent.Secondly, the article constructs a complete electricity price measurement system including operating period price, environment cost and resource depletion cost. The paper calculates the operating period price, and then calculates the environmental cost of thermal power respectively by the ExternE model, UWM, "top-down", shadow price and trading method, besides, user cost method is used to calculate the user cost.Thirdly, this paper uses the theory of elasticity to study the substitution relationship between the three kinds of power supply. CPE price elasticity and MES net price elasticity based on Translog cost function is used to calculate the self price elasticity, cross price elasticity and net price elasticity of wind power, photovoltaic and thermal power of 2007-2014. Then based on vector auto regression (VAR) model, the paper judges the different effect of various factors in the process of the transformation of power consumption structure by Grainger causality test, impulse analysis and variance decomposition.The whole, the paper finds that the operating period price of power, photovoltaic and thermal power (PS, PC,PW) is an important factor affecting the proportion of its power generation.