| In 2014, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the top ten loss enterprises of state-owned, all the reason was overcapacity. This is shows overcapacity has become "chronic illness" that restricts China's economic development, what urgent priority is finding the suitable program to resolve the crisis of overcapacity. The main purpose of this paper is providing the theoretical foundation to settle the crisis of overcapacity. And thus it combines developed status in various industries, references all kinds of research results at home and abroad about overcapacity, and then use s the Production function method and software Eviews6.0 to do data regression that contains the relevant information among 39 manufacturing from 2005 to2014, hereafter gets the every year capacity utilization, then judges synthetically the degree of excess capacity integrates the others material such as financial indicators, losses and so on. At last, it shows the corresponding suggestion.This paper has six chapter on the content system.(1) Chapter I, it is called Introduction, clears the purpose background, innovation, heavy and difficult article, and describes the context of the framework.(2) Chapter II, it is Theoretical Review. In this part, it summarizes the related theories about overcapacity, and elaborates the different opinions and attitudes about overcapacity. The purpose is providing solid theoretical foundation for the following analysis.(3) Chapter III, it is called Research Status of Overcapacity, in this chapter it describes definitions, the status and reasons, and then according to the emphasis it defined connotation in macro level, and at last it clears the main judging method is capacity utilization.(4) Chapter IV, it is Capacity Utilization Estimated, this is the empirical part. In this part, it estimates capacity utilization of 39 manufacturing from 2005 to 2013 using the Production function method. And the software is Eviews6.0, the method is data regression for individual fixed effects panel.(5) Chapter V, it is called The analysis for Empirical Results, and it is also can be described that the analysis about overcapacity. In this chap, it expounds further the extent of overcapacity in China to be c loser to reality rely on capacity utilization estimated, besides some others index and data.(6) Chapter VI, it refers to The Thoughts and Countermeasures for Resolve the Overcapacity Dilemma. It makes some recommendations and responses according to the reason for overcapacity lasted so long.According to empirical results, it draws four basic conclusions: At first, some industries like mining, heavy chemical industry, external demand-oriented industry have appeared overcapacity situation that is varying degrees, and overcapacity has become the norm in economic operation. Thus it would be is a long-term phenomenon to Resolve the overcapacity. The second, it shows that the degree of overcapacity is worse and worse according to "Strong surplus" industry continuing to increase, if not controlled, it will cause huge economic danger. The third, the reasons leading to overcapacity are very much. One important reason is "absence" and "offside" in governments, it have great contact system management to blind investment and imperfect in exit system. In the last chapter this paper suggests some recommendations. At last, it refers to the root cause for overcapacity and e xports blocked is having huge scale but not strong strength. So, the solutions for getting rid of excess capacity are enhancing the overall strength and raising the research of the manufacturing. |
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