Research On Financial Early-warning Of Coal Board Corporations Based On Low-carbon Economy

Coal,as the main resource of our country,accounts for the production and consumption of first energy 76% and 69% independently.As is described by Chinese coal industry corporation,the production of coal has increased greatly in recent years. The model of the resource which coal plays the important role will not be changed in future.The fundemental way in which coal has played will be stable.Otherwise,coal is the resource which produces much carbon dioxion.Its low-quality and low-recycling become the primary reason for global-warming and worse eco-environment.Since the Ghaben meeting in 2009,which maintaind that the increasing way of human economy should be changed into low-carbon way,the survival and development of coal corporations have faced new challenges and opportunities. Under the new background, the research on the financial warning of coal corporations is necessary.The paper analyzes the impact of the development of low carbon economy on overall risk management of the enterprise, and summarizes the financial risk causes and characteristics of coal enterprise under thelow carbon economy background. The paper chooses 13 financial and non-financial indicators to measure enterprise debt paying ability,operating ability,profit ability and development ability. The indicators include three qualitative indicators: low carbon technology authority certification, low carbon public welfare activities, social responsibility report disclosure,which can manifests the characteristics of the times and industry. The paper constructs the indicators,system of risk early warning.25 coal listed companies are selected as the research sample, and the datas of 2010-2012 are used as the data sources. Factor-early-warning model is constructed by using the method of factor analysising and cluster analysising.The model is used to warn the financial situation of 25 enterprises. According to the severity of the financial early-warning,25 enterprises are divided into five grades:without warning, mild warning,moderate warning, warning, serious warning. The result of the study shows that there are 2 enterprises without warning, 13 enterprises with moderate warning, 5 enterprises with high warning and 5 enterprises with serious warning. Finally the datas of 2013 are used to examine the accuracy of the model.The results show that there are two companies forecasting results are not consistent with actual results, and the remaining 23 are consistent.The result manifests that the early warning model of coal enterprise has high accuracy to financial warning.The corresponding suggestions and countermeasures are put forwardaccording to the results of the empirical study. The conclusion is made finally.