Technological Progress,Technological Effect And Energy Rebound Effect

Energy is the cornerstone of national stability and development,and it is also a scarce international resource.Since the founding of the People's Republic of China,China had always been facing the problem of energy shortage,especially since the beginning of the 21 st century,with the rapid development of Chinese economy,the demand for energy had been rising.Considering that Chinese science and technology in the same period had also achieved world-renowned achievements,technological progress has been playing an increasingly important role in economic development.So,was there a certain relationship between technological progress and the rise of China's total energy ? Did technological progress lead to energy rebound effects,If so,how big was the energy rebound effect? Did China also have a "Jewons paradox" ? Answering these questions has great practical significance for China's sustainable development.This paper first defined the types of energy rebound effects,and details the differences and mechanisms between direct energy rebound effects,indirect energy rebound effects,and economic range energy rebound effects,determined the research object of this article,That was,studying the energy rebound effect of China's economy.Subsequently,an energy rebound effect measurement model based on technological progress was constructed,and assumptions on technological progress were relaxed to select a stochastic frontier beyond logarithmic production function(SFA)to measure China's technological progress contribution rate from 1994 to2018.At the same time,considering the industrial structure,energy substitution and technological progress would affect the changes in energy intensity,the LMDI decomposition model was used to decompose the changes in China's energy intensity from 1994 to 2017,and the degree of impact of technological progress on changes in energy intensity was calculated,that is,Measured the technical effect value in order to more accurately measure the energy rebound effect value based on technological progress.Finally,the obtained technological progress contribution rate and technical effect value were substituted into the energy rebound effect calculation model to find the energy rebound effect value of China from 1995 to 2017.While answering the above three questions,it also enriched the related research on the energy rebound effect of China.The main research conclusions of this paper were as follows:(1)During theperiod 1994-2018,the value range of the contribution rate of technological progress was 0.36-0.72,and the contribution rate of technological progress in 16 years exceeded 0.5,indicating that technological progress played an important role in China's economic development.At the same time,the contribution rate of technological progress shows an overall rising trend,which indicates that technological progress contributes more and more to China's economic development;(2)During 1994-2017,technological progress was the most important factor in reducing energy intensity.The technical effect value of 12 years was greater than 1,indicating that the industrial structure and energy substitut-ion had played a negative role in reducing energy intensity during these 12 years;(3)During 1995-2017,China had a relatively obvious energy rebound effect.There was a backfire effect in 13 years.In these 13 years,the new energy consumption exceeded the energy savings.In three years,the energy rebound effect value was negative.At this time,the energy rebound effect value lost its significance;(4)During 1995-2017,China fell into the "Jewons paradox".While technological progress had promoted economic development,it had also produced a large energy rebound effect.In response to the above research conclusions,this article makes the following four suggestions:(1)Use financial subsidies and increase taxes to reduce new energy consumption;(2)Increase investment in science and technology and reduce energy intensity;(3)Strongly promote the industrial structure to mid-to-high end and reduce energy intensity;(4)Vigorously develop and promote new energy sources and improve China's energy consumption structure.