Simulation And Prediction Of Cultivated Land Abandonment Probability In Ecologically Fragile Regions

With further acceleration of urbanization, the opportunity cost of agricultural labor force working in agriculture is increasing, making further expanded agricultural labor force flow. Labor is the most important factor of production in agricultural production, the precipitation of large numbers of workers led to the abandonment of cultivated land has become more and more serious.Cultivated land abandonment often affect state food security, local ecology and even regional security and stability, so the study of cultivated land abandonment has an important theoretical and practical significance.At present, many domestic scholars study on labor precipitation and abandonment of arable land on the macro-level qualitative analysis of social statistics or on the basis of investigations in the field of labor, all over the country, but few study based onmicro-level household survey.Farmers as agricultural land directly users, labor emigration lead abandoned farmland is the decision-making behavior of farmers in the process of its production and operation.Cultivated land abandonment is a complicated process, with the advance of urbanization, changes in policy, market and other factors, what the current situation of cultivated land abandoning, whether it will continue to be abandoned, abandoning the probability level, is a matter to be concerned.Mizhi County is located in the loess plateau, is eco-environmental fragile area in China, has a typical study significance.In this context, through the design of questionnaires, using participatory assessment methods to field research mainly to get area farmer's agricultural income, investment, growing information, over a 3-year research amounts to 70 villages,1000 copies of questionnaires.Combined with a large number of field visits, measurement data, image interpretation. On the basis of data respectively from the micro perspective construction of Multi-Agent System (MAS) and macro perspective transformation model of Land Transfer Model (LTM), from the perspective of both top down and bottom up analysis MiZhi county cultivated land abandoning's micro-mechanism and macro-trends in abandonment, and coupling the two models,Combined with the advantages of the MAS model and the LTM model comprehensively analysis MiZhi cultivated land abandoning micro-mechanism and macro-impact factor.The results showed that:1.Based on CBDI decision-making structure of MAS model, combined with Netlogo simulation platform for date displaying and processing, can better show results from space. By contrast with the reality and the precision of the traditional model, found that results can be used to show farmers cultivated land abandoning in the study area, and act the abandonment of cultivated land on farmer decision-making processes.2.The abandonment of cultivated land is a complex process, for different types of households, main reasons of leading to abandonment are different. Class A farmer mainly because of the high opportunity cost of land, land acquisition of low economic returns.Through simulation of the interaction between similar farmers, can see that the main factors affecting B fanners are farmers' the geography of cognitive and other similar household effects. C farmers mainly because of farming capacity limitations.3.LTM model can do well different macro-effects factors on the effect of the abandonment.Through three different scenes.forecast and analysis the amount and spatial distribution of MiZhi cultivated land abandoning. Stories ?, the arable land abandoned gate grid block number is 4505 block, accounted for arable land of 0.79%, main distribution in distance town more near of area.Stories ?, the arable land abandoned gate grid block number is 18918 block, accounted for arable land of 3.33%, main distribution in distance town more near of area and distance settlements more far area. Stories ?, the arable land abandoned gate grid block number is 32706 block, accounted for arable land of 5.74%, main distribution in distance town more near of area and distance settlements more far of area.4.The coupled model of MAS and LTM based on land total change in land supply and demand equilibrium, full use the advantages of LTM model analysis of influencing factors on destination transformation and the MAS model in simulation of micro-land use processes explain the micro-mechanism of land-use change. Coupled model simulations to predict the abandonment is evenly distributed over the entire study area, LTM predicted abandonment are more concentrated and the macro factors affect the simulation results. compared to the coupled model forecasts results closer to reality.