Research On Risk Assessment Model And Line Selection Optimization Of Road Hazardous Chemicals Transportation

With the rapid development of the national chemical industry, dangerous chemicals have been widely utilized. While it also have bought endless accidents in its transporting, storing and using, which made significant impact on the safety of people's lives and property. According to the statistics, the road transport of dangerous chemicals activities appear to the highest probability during all the accidents caused by dangerous chemicals. Since the road transport of dangerous chemicals is a constantly changing dynamic system involved personnel, vehicles, dangerous chemicals category, haul roads, weather conditions, etc, and each of those factors can leads to chemicals accidents. Meanwhile, in order to strengthen the security of the transportation system and exclude risk factors, selecting routes reasonable can effectively avoid insecurity and also reduce the influence to the surrounding environment and the personnel. Therefore, in order to estimate the risk of road transport of dangerous chemicals fully and accurately, the road transport of dangerous chemicals risk assessment model and routes selection assessment model have established. Specific studies can be divided into four parts:(1) Learn the contents and characteristics of each elements in road transport of dangerous chemicals system, including hazardous chemicals category, road transport employees, transport vehicles, equipment and facilities. And in accordance with the basic principles of safety statistics, accidents happened in 2013-2014 have been counted by its type, cause, chemical species and time. So the basic law and development of the accidents can be obtained.(2) Established road transport of dangerous chemicals risk assessment model by accident rate and consequences of the accident two indicators. Took road characteristics, weather, traffic, dangerous chemicals and other characteristics as a correction coefficient in the accident rate calculation model based on ‘4M'factors; Used ALOHA simulation software by the scope of the dangerous chemical accidents simulated, then took accident rate and the range of accidents as basic parameters to calculate the consequences of road accidents in the transportation of dangerous chemicals from the casualties, property damage and environmental impact.(3)According to the multi-objective planning method, Establishing dual objective function of the common transport risk and transport costs of checks and balances, And established each index by the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Established routes selection evaluation model of road transport of dangerous chemicals(4)Verified by case analysis and risk assessment model line selection on paper established optimization integrated assessment models to obtain the risk evaluation and gross value of each routes by substituting the data and calculation. Then selected the optimal routes which proved the feasibility of the model.