The Study Of Relevance Between Real Estate Cycle Fluction And National Of Economy

Real estate industry was becoming pillar industry of our country with the rapid development ever since the 1990 s, which has became an important component of the national economy. The development of the real estate industry showed obvious cycle characteristics just as the same as the economic cycle, which was influenced by national economy besides own factors but in turn affected the whole national economy. Therefore, it would be conducive to sustainable development of the real estate industry and the whole national economy for exploring the law of the real estate cycle and analysising intrinsic relationship between real estate cycle fluctuation and the national economy.This article firstly introduced the real estate cycle fluctuation theory and the economic cycle theory, then systematically analysed the mutual effect between the real estate cycle fluctuation and the national economy on the development of the national economy of real estate cycle fluctuations. Secondly, we studied the relationship between real estate cycle and national economy by choosing commercial housing sales area and GDP respectly as representative indicators. Furthermore, we subdivided the national economic factors into gross domestic product, national commodity house average sales price, per capita income dispensability of urban households and medium and long-term loan interest rate. we tested the intrinsic relationship between national real estate cycle fluctuation and the development of national economy by using the ADF unit root test, cointegration test and granger causality test method. The empirical results showed that which was a long term and stable cointegration relationship between them, which indicated that it was a two-way relationship of mutual influence between real estate cycle fluctuation and the national economy development.