A Study On Influence Factors And Calculation Of China's Trade Dependence Ratio To America

In the international trade the ratio of dependence on foreign trade is a very basic concept. Its use range is very wide. But how to calculate it is always debated. Accord to the previous papers, all of the research can be divided into two classes. Someone revised to dependence on foreign trade, but the analysis on the revised dependence on foreign are few and not thorough; the other based on dependence on the foreign trade, analyzed the influence factors of dependence on foreign trade. In those papers, the authors always made mention of how to revise the ratio, but it can not eliminate controversy. Therefore, the author hopes to find a way to eliminate controversy, and study its factors. It makes the research more thorough.The Chinese foreign trade has been developed rapidly in the 15 years after China joins in WTO. As the Chinese labor cost continues increasing, China gradual loses the original foreign trade advantages.The Chinese foreign trade will have a new impact on Chinese economy. America is one of China's most important trading partners. The trade between China and the United States is representative in China's foreign trade. Therefore, the author chooses the relevant data of China's dependence on foreign trade of the United States to study the new dependence on foreign trade.First based on the previous papers, the author got the mathematical formula from Shen Lisheng (2003) to calculate the trade dependence and changed the mathematical formula according to the country and the industry. After that, the author calculated the Chinese trade dependence, the Chinese trade dependence on America and some industries of Chinese trade dependence on America, according to the changed mathematical formula. According to the calculated results, the author analyzed the characteristics of the Chinese trade dependence, the Chinese trade dependence on America and some industries of Chinese trade dependence on America. Next, based on the analysis of how the influence factors influence the Chinese trade dependence on America, the author selected China's economic growth, U.S. economic growth, China's consumer price index, U.S. consumer price index, China's foreign direct investment from the United States, China's money supply M1 and the U.S. money supply M1, as the influence factors. According to the characteristics of the Chinese trade dependence and the Chinese trade dependence on America, the author assumed how those factors influenced the Chinese trade dependence on America, Co integration analysis the data. The results shows there is a co integration relationship between the factors and the Chinese trade dependence on America, there is a positive correlation between China's economic growth and the Chinese trade dependence on America, between U.S. economic growth and the Chinese trade dependence on America, between U.S. consumer price index and the Chinese trade dependence on America, between China's foreign direct investment from the United States and the Chinese trade dependence on America, between China's money supply M1 and the Chinese trade dependence on America, there is negative correlation between China's consumer price index and the Chinese trade dependence on America, between the U.S. money supply M1 and the Chinese trade dependence on America. According to the theoretical and empirical results the author put forward relevant policy suggestions, to accelerate the transformation of Chinese foreign trade economy, to promote the development of the foreign trade between China and America.