The Research Of Banana Industry Injury Early-warning Mechanism Of China

Since the reform and opening up,especially after China's accession to the WTO,China's banana industry as a pillar of tropical fruit has achieved rapid development,and promoted the economy and rural social development in the tropics.But,under the condition of highly open and zero tariff for ASEAN agricultural products,a lot of imported bananas enter our market,the international banana giants strengthen monopoly in the high-end market and takeover domestic enterprises in China,which make people pay more and more attention to China's banana industry safety.Therefore,in order to maintain the lawful rights and interests of the banana industry in our country,the banana industry injury early-warning mechanism must be established.Industry injury early-warning mechanism can not only forecast the possible trade friction and barrier of industry development through the dynamic monitoring of import and export data,but also provide information and basis for trade remedy measures when industry damage occurred,which can protect industry in advance and has a great significance to industry safety.This thesis takes industry injury as a starting point,directed by relative WTO rules and regulations issued by the ministry of commerce,such as Anti-dumping Industry Injury Investigation.First,the thesis comprehensive systematically analyzes the basic theory of industry injury;Second,it introduces the current situation of the development of the banana industry in our country,and analyses in detail the possible risk on the import trade of bananas;Third,Build the banana industry injury mechanism in our country,including the construction of index system and early warning model,and use the nearly 15 years related data of the banana industry by investigation,calculate the industry injury early-warning values of the banana industry in our country by the combination of quantitative and qualitative method,so as to determine whether industry is damaged;Finally,make the emergency program based on the analysis results,and put forward countermeasures and Suggestions.The results showed that:From 2000 to 2014,the banana industry injury in our country appeared light police and intermediate police on the whole.The first reason is the increasing quantity of imported bananas,resulting in a decline in the market share of the domestic bananas;The second reason is natural disasters like typhoon,frost,plant diseases,which insect the steady production of banana industry,especially in Guangxi and Hainan area;In addition,the cost of banana production has risen sharply in recent years,it also block the development of the banana industry in our country.Therefore,China should take continuous,long-term industry injury early-warning monitor for import and domestic bananas.Once found that indicators meet the industry injury standard,we should timely take appropriate measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the banana industry in our country.