An Industry Injury Early-warning Index System And A Fuzzy Judgment Of China's Chemical Under WTO Framework

In the background of anti-dumping petitions involved in chemical industry initiated by Chinese enterprises against foreign dumping imports, the thesis is used to point out the significance of studying chemical industry injury early-warning index system by analyzing the status and development trend of China's chemical foreign trade.According with the agreement of WTO, this paper constructs an industry injury early-warning index system of China's chemical based on the import factors of chemicals and the domestic industry factors. With the help of 21 experts survey from government, university and enterprises, the topic is transferred from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis, on the basis of the relevant early-warning system in the other field and the study above, we constructed an industry injury early-warning system of China's chemical, this system can be used to monitor the continuous changes of dumping imports overseas and reflect the injury degree of domestic industry.Firstly, according to the analysis of the status and characteristics of chemical foreign trade, the focus is to point out the increscent trend of trade deficit of chemical trade. Performing a comparison analysis on anti-dumping petitions, we draw a conclusion that chemical industry is suffering a serious disaster from antidumping petitions against the dumping imports and antidumping petitions appealed by foreigners. It is necessary to construct industry injury early-warning system of China's chemical. Secondly, based on the agreement of WTO, we construct the industry injury early-warning index evaluation system. With the survey of experts, we get the sort order of every index of system. The last but not least, collecting the historical data, we divide the area coverage of each index in the different early-warning class by the system methods, and use the fuzzy judgment method to build the fuzzy early-warning model and perform the integrated evaluation. We random sample the data of the near anti-dumping petitions against foreigners and returned fine outcome, which proves the efficiency of the industry injury early-warning system of China's chemical. So this system would help government and enterprises make a decision and take measures to defend themselves against the dumping imports, control and low the injury degree caused by oversea dumping imports.