Research On XX Company Natural Gas Market Risk Early Warning Mechanism

With the development of economy and the aggravation of environment problem, the natural gas as a kind of clean energy, has become more and more important to the development of national economy. Natural gas market risk refers to the natural gas market is affected by natural gas supply and demand fluctuations which may cause the natural gas market and the development of the whole gas industry chain loss situation. Natural gas exploration, development, transportation, storage and transportation, terminal sales constitute the entire natural gas industry chain, which is an important part of the entire natural gas industry chain downstream is the natural gas market. Natural gas market represents the demand for natural gas. The relationship between supply and demand is effected by many factors, resulting in the volatility of the equilibrium of supply and demand, and origin of the natural gas market risk is the volatility of the relationship between supply and demand, and the demand for natural gas market fluctuations will cause interaction between natural gas industry and its related industries, which may result in the loss of the natural gas industry chain coordination development. Risk early warning is according to the characteristics of the research object, based on the data collected in, risk identification, classification, evaluation, monitoring of the risk state of an object, to deviate from the warning line of different strength, issued a warning signal corresponding to the decision-makers, and take corresponding preventive countermeasures. Natural gas market risk warning, is the risk of natural gas as the research object, the relevant factors are analyzed, the whole market risk situation to grasp, guide enterprises to take appropriate measures to avoid risks.This paper takes the risk early warning process as the main line, first, this paper introduces the concept of natural gas market and theoretical basis, the natural gas market risk management and risk early warning theory. Second, in the natural gas market risk, comprehensive, scientific principle, of XX company natural gas market risk identification, classification, natural gas market risk classification risk to users, natural gas price risk, the main alternative energy utilization of competitive risk, changes in the macroeconomic environment risk, policy change risk, natural gas supply and demand imbalance risk of six categories. Third, in the natural gas market risk identification based on constructing a six level indicators and 14 secondary indicators of the natural gas market risk evaluation index system, analysis method to determine the weight systems, and illustrates the related indexes using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Fourth, the relevant data analysis based on established single index early warning analysis and using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for the comprehensive index and early warning based analysis that enterprises is now in the risk level and propose related suggestions guide enterprises to avoid market risk.